Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 220058
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Bear Flats Units 1-3...Pennsylvania Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
858 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2100 EDT on April 21.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...

High pressure building into the region will supply sunny skies,
low relative humidity and fairly light winds to the area Monday.
Fair weather is expected Tuesday, with a slight uptick in relative
humidity and winds ahead of an approaching cold front over the
Great Lakes.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-5 percent). Areas of frost overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 32.
Max Humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph in the late evening
                    and overnight becoming light.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 7 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 8.

TIME (EDT)          9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  38  22  13  23  48  31  20  10  0
Weather Cov.......                      ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather Type......                      FST FST FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  43  42  41  39  38  36  35  34  33
RH................  49  50  55  59  62  67  69  72  75
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   7   7   6   6   4   3   3   3
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  10  8   7   6   6   5   5
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  W   W
Transp Wind Spd...  10  10  12  10  10  10  8   8   7
LVORI.............  2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4
ADI...............  8   8   8   7   7   7   4   4   4
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.MONDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 57.
Min Humidity........24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing Height.......6400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 15 to 18
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11 early in the morning increasing to 61 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  0   0   0   0   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
Weather Cov.......  ARS ARS
Weather Type......  FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  32  33  38  41  44  47  50  51  53  55  55  56
RH................  78  75  59  52  45  38  33  29  26  24  25  24
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  3   3   5   6   7   7   8   8   9   8   8   7
20 FT Wind Gust...  5   6   10  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  12
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.4 0.8 2.5 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.4
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  7   7   10  14  16  16  16  17  18  16  16  15
LVORI.............  4   4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  11  11  11  48  48  48  61  61  61  54  54  54
Haines Index......  4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Patchy frost
                    overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 35.
Max Humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 5 to 13 mph shifting to the east 5 to
                    6 mph overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2 to 8.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  4   4   5   4   3   2   3   4   5   6   8   9
Weather Cov.......                                  PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather Type......                                  FST FST FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  54  53  48  46  44  42  41  40  38  38  37  36
RH................  27  28  34  38  43  46  48  52  57  57  59  61
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  7   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  7   6   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4
Mix Hgt (kft).....  6.2 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   NE  E   E   E   E   E
Transp Wind Spd...  13  9   6   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   5   5
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  8   8   8   2   2   2   3   3   3   2   2   2
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy frost
                    early in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 63.
Min Humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 6 to 13 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    8 to 16 mph in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then increasing to 18 to 23 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 74 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  13  17  21  24  28  31  32  33  34  36  39  42
Weather Cov.......  PTY PTY
Weather Type......  FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  36  37  41  45  50  54  56  59  61  62  62  62
RH................  61  64  59  55  50  46  45  40  39  38  39  39
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  3   3   3   4   6   7   9   10  11  12  13  13
20 FT Wind Gust...  4   4   5   6   8   11  13  14  16  17  17  17
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.5 0.6 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  5   6   6   8   10  13  15  16  18  20  22  23
LVORI.............  3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  4   4   4   35  35  35  59  59  59  74  74  74
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Fitzgerald
Requested by...Jarrid Doyle
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411651.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jadoyle@pa.gov
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