Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221756
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1156 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will have nice weather today, not much wind and high
temperatures running a few degrees above average. Increasing winds
and unsettled weather begin on Saturday, with warm temperatures
and breezy afternoon winds. We will be cooler on Sunday, but it
will be very windy, with areas of blowing dust. Monday will also
be breezy and it will be the coolest day of the week with high
temperatures running, 10 to 20 degrees below average. We will be
warmer for the middle of next week, with breezy to windy
afternoons each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will have nice weather today as upper level high pressure
builds across the area. Our skies will be mostly clear, our high
temperatures will run a few degrees above average and our winds
will generally be light. Overall a lovely day. Of course we will
have to pay for today`s nice weather.

For the weekend, we will begin to come under the influence of a
series of upper level troughs. On Saturday, as the upper level
trough gets organized over California, we will a dry southwest
flow develop across the region. This weather pattern will give us
breezy to windy afternoon conditions with our high temperatures
running 5 to 10 degrees above average. The real impactful weather
starts on Sunday. By late Sunday morning, the upper level trough
will be nearing the Four Corners region. At the same time an
impressively strong lee side surface trough will be developing in
southeast Colorado. The strong surface trough will create a tight
packing of the surface pressure gradient across New Mexico. The
surface trough combined with strong winds aloft associated with
the upper level trough will lead to a very windy Sunday afternoon.
A high wind watch is in place for much of southern New Mexico and
far west Texas for Sunday. Probabilistic data is showing a better
than 50% chance for sustained winds of 40 mph across much of the
lowlands east of the Rio Grande and in area mountains. And if you
look at the probabilistic data for wind gusts, the NBM is showing
80+% chances for wind gusts above 70 mph in the Sacramento
Mountains. Our temperatures on Sunday will be cooler than we saw
on Saturday, but despite the cooler temperatures, I do think we
will see areas of blowing dust across much of lowlands. I do need
to mention that the upper level trough will also give us a chance
for some light snow in area mountains and light rain in the
lowland, mainly west of the Continental Divide.

On Monday, a second trough will swing across southern New Mexico
and continue to give us a chance for lowland rain and light
mountain snow showers. Snow levels on Monday will be lower at
around 5,000 to 6,000 feet, but snow totals will be light at less
than an inch. Monday is also looking breezy to windy, but nothing
like we will see on Sunday. Tuesday will see yet another upper
level short wave trough move across the area, which will continue
our light precipitation chances and give us breezy to windy
conditions in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday
will run 10 to 20 degrees below average. Then on Wednesday of next
week, we will take a break, with warmer temperatures and less
winds as an upper level short wave ridge builds across the region.
But then another short wave trough (this one looks dry) will give
us another afternoon with breezy to windy conditions on next
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

VFR conditions with unlimited ceilings are expected through this
evening. Increasing high (20 kft) cloudiness is expected
overnight and into Saturday. Winds mostly from the west southwest
under 10 knots this afternoon and light and variable in direction
overnight with speeds under 7 knots. Wind speeds will begin to
increase to 10 to 20 knots after 18Z Saturday afternoon. Long term
outlook has strong winds and blowing dust impacting the region
Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 435 AM MDT Fri Mar 22 2024

As we head further into March, we are seeing more and more breezy
to windy days. Today will be nice with not much wind and high
temperatures running a little above average. But then for weekend
and approaching upper level storm system will give us breezy winds
on Saturday and very windy conditions on Sunday. There will also
be a slight chance for lowland rain and high mountain snow showers
on Sunday, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Min RH`s in the lowlands
on Saturday will be in the teens, but fire danger ratings and fuel
moisture are still elevated so I`m not expecting any fire weather
headlines this weekend. Monday will be the coolest day of the
week, with breezy winds and min RH`s above 20%. For the middle of
next week, we will see increasing winds and decreasing min RH`s.
We could see some elevated to critical fire weather condition next
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  54  83  56  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            47  78  49  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  81  50  64 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               48  77  46  61 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               35  52  31  36 /   0   0   0  20
Truth or Consequences    47  75  46  59 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              45  68  36  48 /   0   0  10  40
Deming                   46  79  46  61 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg                45  77  41  58 /   0   0  10  50
West El Paso Metro       53  80  52  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                43  82  50  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             46  85  51  69 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               48  74  47  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   49  83  52  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             48  79  49  63 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           54  79  52  62 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            47  77  47  60 /   0   0   0  10
Hatch                    45  79  49  61 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus                 50  79  49  62 /   0   0   0  10
Orogrande                46  77  49  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  38  66  39  50 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                39  64  36  48 /   0   0   0  30
Timberon                 37  64  35  48 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  41  67  37  49 /   0   0   0  20
Hillsboro                45  73  41  55 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport                45  75  44  59 /   0   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             40  68  33  46 /   0   0  20  60
Hurley                   43  71  36  53 /   0   0   0  30
Cliff                    45  74  39  55 /   0   0  10  50
Mule Creek               45  68  36  49 /   0   0  20  60
Faywood                  45  71  39  53 /   0   0   0  30
Animas                   45  77  44  59 /   0   0  10  30
Hachita                  46  77  44  60 /   0   0   0  20
Antelope Wells           47  76  43  59 /   0   0   0  20
Cloverdale               48  71  40  54 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     TXZ418>424.

NM...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
     NMZ407>411-414>417-426>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.