Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
000
FXUS64 KEWX 272355 AAA
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Morning rains within southwest flow aloft are pushing into the
Coastal Plains this afternoon. Overall, this activity has not
amounted to much in the way of accumulations as the rain is falling
out of high cloud bases with some drier air in the lower levels of
the atmosphere. A dry line over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau
is allowing for some development of some showers at the present time
within upper lift associated with the base of the upper trough
entering West Texas. High-res model guidance shows this scattered
activity continuing and spreading east through the late afternoon
and evening hours before ending by 9 pm. The convective environment
is not the best to support sustained deep convection. The low levels
remain dry which is leading to LCL values near 9-11kft. Because of
these high cloud bases, there is not much area for updrafts (short
CAPE profiles) before they reach the equilibrium level. This is
leading to CAPE values to be less than 1000 J/kg despite steep mid-
level lapse rates. Given the lapse rates and sufficient shear, can`t
rule out a strong storm or two with some possible small hail and
gusty surface winds given the dry air at the surface. The latest Day
1 Severe Weather Outlook from SPC has a level 1 out of 5 (marginal)
risk for portions of the eastern Hill Country and I35 corridor based
on these risks.
Once activity moves east/dissipates with the loss of heating, the
remainder of the tonight period should be dry with cool
temperatures. Lows tonight will reach into the 40s for most areas
with near 50 degrees closer to the Rio Grande. For tomorrow, mostly
clear skies will prevail with southerly flow at the surface. This
should allow for highs to reach the middle 70s to middle 80s across
the region. Low afternoon humidity values and winds near 10 mph
could create some elevated fire weather conditions across the Rio
Grande Plains once again. Tomorrow night should be a bit warmer with
lows in the 50s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Friday through Easter weekend will include a warming trend and rain
free conditions across the region. A west-northwesterly flow aloft
enters Friday before transitioning to a west then west-southwesterly
flow by early next week. Southerly winds trend at the surface and
across the lower levels as surface high pressure will be displaced
to our east. Winds become occasionally breezy, especially Friday
afternoon. Early morning clouds will become more common and
widespread with skies each afternoon trending under partly to mostly
cloudy conditions. Afternoon highs will climb into the mid to upper
80s by Sunday and Monday of next week across majority of the area
while 90s will become more common closer to the Rio Grande.
The next opportunity for rain and storms into South-Central Texas
should arrive Monday night into early Tuesday along a cold front as
a surface low develops coming off the lee side of the Rockies with
influence from an upper level trough stretching from the central
plains back into the Desert Southwest. There will be some building
instability ahead of the front and deep layer shear could be enough
to allow for organized convection. The primary question, which is
common during this time of year, is what is the quality of the
capping inversion and how well could it erode? Any activity should
shift east by mid-morning on Tuesday. A slightly cooler airmass will
then filter in behind the front with moderate north to northwesterly
winds as surface high pressure builds southward across the state.
Afternoon highs on Tuesday trend in the 70s into the 80s while the
morning lows during early Wednesday drop into the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
VFR conditions are forecast for area terminals through the period.
Light to moderate shower activity is moving across the I-35 corridor
affecting KAUS, KSAT and KSSF for the next hour. There are a few
lightning strikes to the southeast of KAUS and moving away into the
coastal plains. The showers and isolated storms are forecast to push
away from the area terminals within the next hour or two. Light and
variable winds are forecast for the rest of tonight into Thursday
morning. Southerly winds return to KDRT a few hours after day-break
and mid to late morning along the I-35 corridor. SKC late this
evening into Thursday for all area sites.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 47 78 56 80 / 20 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 44 77 54 79 / 20 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 46 79 54 80 / 10 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 45 75 54 77 / 20 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 49 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 44 76 55 78 / 20 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 46 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 44 78 53 80 / 10 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 46 75 54 78 / 20 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 48 78 56 79 / 10 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 48 80 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Short-Term...17
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17