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000
FXUS63 KGID 120928
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
428 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today`s Fire Weather: Near critical fire danger west of Hwy
  281 this afternoon, but winds should be just low enough that
  we shouldn`t need a red flag warning.

- Saturday Fire Weather: We could be a little closer to
  critical fire danger criteria on Saturday across north central
  Kansas. Possible fire weather watch/warnings may be needed.

- Warm Weekend: First 80+ temps of the year for most of our
  coverage area (some southern spots already have hit 80 this
  year).

- Monday Afternoon Through Tuesday Storm System: Good chance
  (70-80%) for showers/thunderstorms, some could be severe.
  Strong south winds ahead of system on Monday, strong west
  northwest winds on Tuesday (25-35 Gusting to 45 mph both days)

-  Gradual cool down Tuesday through Thursday behind storm
   system. Highs back down into the 50s and 60s by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Today through Sunday...

The main forecast concern centers around fire danger today and
Saturday. Please see the fire weather section below for more
information regarding fire danger.

Other than the fire danger it should really be great weather
through this weekend. Temperatures begin to warm up with
southerly winds today (69-75F) and Saturday (83-88F). Saturday
will be the warmest day so far this year for most of our
forecast area marking the first time most areas get above 80
degrees. Sunday should then be another day in the 80s.

Overall most areas have a 90% chance of remaining dry through
this weekend and I`ve continued with our dry forecast for now.
However, there is a weak short wave pushing through on Saturday
that most models indicate will be dry, but can not completely
rule out an isolated shower or brief thunderstorm. The SPC has
included us under the risk for general thunder Saturday
afternoon south of I-80.

Monday into Tuesday...
There is good confidence in a strong upper storm system moving
through the central plains bringing gusty winds and a good
chance (70-80%) for precipitation to the area. However, the
exact storm track remains uncertain and although most areas will
see at least some precipitation, the exact amounts remain rather
uncertain at this time. Some of our area could get dry slotted
by this storm system and see very little precipitation, while
some other areas could pick up a half inch or even an inch of
rainfall. The details will have to get worked out as the system
approaches and the storm track becomes better known. Strong
gradient force winds both ahead of and behind this storm system
are likely.

Wednesday and Thursday...
We begin to cool down behind this storm system and a few frosty
nights will again be likely beginning Thursday night. Just
something to be aware of if you get the urge to plant sensitive
garden vegetation during our upcoming 80 degree days. Will keep
the NBM pops for Wednesday night with small rainfall chances.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

This is a very quiet aviation forecast with generally clear
skies expected through the next 24 hours. Light west
northwesterly winds at TAF issuance time will eventually become
light and variable around dawn before turning around out of the
south by late morning. Southerly winds will pick up a little bit
by afternoon but even gusts should for the most part remain less
than 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Today...
The winds will be light and variable this morning, but should
become more southerly by afternoon and increase especially west
of Highway 281. Even so, max southerly wind gusts this
afternoon across our far western zones will likely only top out
at 20 to 25 mph, thus remaining below Red Flag Criteria. Even if
we do see a few random gusts over 25 mph it should be brief and
isolated. Consequently, no fire weather headlines are planned at
this time. RH values will be low this afternoon bottoming out
around 20 percent.

Saturday...
We expect a stronger pressure gradient across our south and
southeastern zones Saturday afternoon between a surface low
over the Dakotas and high pressure over the Mississippi Valley.
There should be more southerly wind gusts over 25 mph on
Saturday than today, primarily across north central Kansas. The
RH values will still be very low ranging from 15 to 25 percent.
Am thinking that some of our southern and southeastern zones may
end up needing fire weather watch/warnings if current trends
persist. The wind will be lighter northwest of the Tri-Cities.

Sunday through Tuesday...
Light winds on Sunday should limit the fire danger. However,
south winds will be very strong on Monday ahead of the next
storm system with strong west northwest winds behind the system
on Tuesday. So the main question regarding fire danger on
Monday and Tuesday will center around RH values, which could
certainly be close to our headline criteria in some locations.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely