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000
FXUS64 KJAN 151807 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
107 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Surface analysis had a ridge along the Gulf coast states from the
east. The resulting return flow led to dense fog over our
southeast earlier but the fog has dissipated. The moisture
increase has led to an increase in cloud cover this morning as
well. Ridging aloft was also noted over our region and combined
with the surface ridging, will help temperatures top out warmer
than normal today despite the cloud cover. The current forecast
handles this well. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Today and Tonight: Global guidance continues to highlight a slow-
eastward migration of the upper-ridge/surface high which will keep
weather conditions in the area quiet for today and this evening.
Given the slight increase in moisture, a Dense Fog advisory
remains in a effect for areas in the Pine Belt until 9AM this
morning. Afternoon highs today will peak in the low 80s with calm
conditions and increasing moisture as the sfc high remains in
place over the southeast US along with increasing clouds building
from the west later this afternoon. Tonight, weather conditions
will continue to remain quiet as the mean ridge axis continues to
slowly shift further east across the southeast US. Clouds will
continue to build from the west later this evening which will
limit radiational cooling across the forecast area. Because of
this, nighttime temperatures will struggle to cool in the low to
mid 60s. /CR/

Tuesday through next weekend (Sunday)...

Early-midweek (Tuesday-Thursday):

Synoptic & sfc pattern will consist of eastward building mean ridge
at the sfc & aloft, while low-level return flow will begin to pick
up across the area into Tuesday. Strong WAA will be commencing ahead
of an impressive vertically stacked cold core low aloft/sfc low
across the Great Plains & progged to swing into the Mid-West to
Great Lakes by midweek on Wednesday. Upper low will become less
stacked & sfc low is expected to lose some punch as it moves into
the Great Lakes. Regardless, a weak frontal zone is expected to
swing southeast, bringing some light rain & storm chances areas
northwest of the Natchez Trace to Hwy 82 corridor. There is some
strong deep layer flow, so even with some moisture concerns, there
may be enough potential for a few isolated severe storms into
Tuesday evening to overnight into Wednesday. Left the "Marginal" in
the HWO graphics but didn`t trim back as much, to keep some areas
northwest of the Natchez Trace included. With strong low-level jet
of 30-40kts at 850mb & 700mb, respectively, & 4-5mb sfc pressure
gradient, gradient winds remain possible. Kept the ongoing "Limited"
area untouched, even though it may be more refined along the Natchez
Trace corridor but west of I-55 in the northern portions. An
additional shortwave trough/frontal ascent will occur around
Thursday, where some steeper lapse rates/vertical totals around 28-
30 & 30-40kt flow in the 0-3km & 0-6km layers, respectively, will
support some increased convective potential. Can`t rule out some
isolated severe potential with hail being the main concern during
this time. Seasonably warm conditions are expected in the early-
midweek timeframe, with highs some +5 deg. F above normal in the low-
mid 80s & lows some 10-15 deg. F above normal in the mid 60s east of
I-55 to mid-upper 60s to the northwest.

Late week-early next weekend (Friday-Sunday): The region will remain
on the northern fringe of the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico to
Caribbean Sea while deep longwave cold core spins over south-central
Canada. Westerly zonal flow will be persistent, with stationary
frontal boundary slowly sagging to the south late week into the
weekend. There could be multi-rounds of rain & storms into late week
& weekend, combined with bulk shear & lapse rates, support some
continued rain & storm potential. Isolated severe storms also can`t
be ruled out during this time. Fcst elements consist of increased
rain & storm chances across the the northern half of the area Friday
before scattered rain & storm chances move in during the weekend.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected Friday with highs in the mid-
upper 80s, before cooling down into late weekend to more seasonable
to seasonably cool in the upper 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace
to low-mid 70s to the southeast by Sunday.Lows will be seasonably
warm both Friday & Saturday mornings in the low-mid 60s before front
moves in through the weekend & lows could be more seasonable in the
mid to upper 50s by Sunday morning. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions were observed areawide at 1730Z and VFR conditions
wl prevail through 06Z. After 06Z MVFR cigs wl begin to develop in
the se. MVFR cigs are expected at most TAF sites by 12Z and wl
take until after 16Z to improve to VFR. A gusty se-s wind 17-20kts
wl develop by 16Z and continue through the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  64  83  68 /   0   0   0  10
Meridian      84  60  84  65 /   0   0   0  10
Vicksburg     83  65  84  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hattiesburg   84  61  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       82  65  83  68 /   0   0   0  10
Greenville    80  67  82  70 /   0  10  10  30
Greenwood     82  66  82  68 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CR/DC/22