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000
FXUS62 KKEY 220214
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Surface analysis places a frontal boundary draped across the
northern Florida peninsula this evening, and an expansive ridge
centered in the central North Atlantic extending across South
Florida and the Keys. The front shoved the ridge axis across the
forecast area, which has caused winds to slacken and become
variable across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters.
This evening`s sounding highlighted the chaotic low-level wind
field, before becoming west to northwest aloft. A sharp inversion
was sampled around 950 mb, with extremely dry air above it.
Interestingly enough, despite the lack of moisture a reverse cloud
line has managed to develop along the Lower Keys. Unsurprisingly
with the aforementioned dry air, no showers have been detected
along this line. KBYX has remained echo-free this evening aside
from a thunderstorm that developed on the Mainland earlier that
has since dissipated. Overnight, no showers are expected as the
dry air will remain in place across the area ahead of the front to
our north. Winds will remain light, but will begin to clock
around to the west to northwest by midday tomorrow. Skies will
remain mostly clear, and when combined with the light winds, could
lead to some radiational cooling. The limiting factor will be dew
points near 70 degrees, so have kept temperatures for the island
chain in the lower to mid 70s. The forecast remains on track and
no changes were necessary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, as high pressure over
the western North Atlantic continues to retreat farther offshore
overnight, southeasterly breezes will remain light to gentle
across the Florida Keys coastal waters, becoming variable at
times. These light to gentle southeast to south breezes will
persist through Monday then will become moderate from the
northwest to north Monday afternoon and evening, as a weak frontal
boundary slides through South Florida and the Keys. High pressure
building over the Southeast will bring moderate easterly breezes
back to the Keys waters by the middle of the week, with fresh
breezes developing by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
TAF period. Variable surface winds are expected overnight, then
winds will become west to northwest tomorrow morning and gradually
increase throughout the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 2012, the daily record rainfall at Key West (1.99")
and Marathon (2.62") were both set. Rainfall records date back to
1871 in Key West and 1950 in Marathon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  73  84  72  83 /   0  10   0  10
Marathon  76  87  73  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....NB
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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