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000
FXUS64 KLCH 150927
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
427 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Overhead we have weak upper ridging while at the surface we are in
between a departing high pressure off to our east and a storm system
off to our northwest. Southerly flow has helped to bring in plenty
of moisture, leading to another noticeably humid morning with temps
in the 60s with near matching dewpoints. Along with that, we have
seen an increase in the extent of cloud cover and some fog develop
across the area. A Dense Fog Advisory is still not expected at this
time, however its important to be cautious during morning commutes
before fog dissipation.

Models runs as of this morning have shown less impacts from the
storm system and front that will stall out before reaching this far
east and south. As a result, our area was removed from the Marginal
Risk for severe storms. There is a less than a 10% chance of seeing
showers and storms across our northern zones tomorrow. Nevertheless,
as the system does progress, we will see the pressure gradient
tighten, leading to increased southerly flow tomorrow. There still
is a possibility that a Wind Advisory will be needed, however as the
front passes well off to the north of us, southerly flow will
continue but taper in speed.

Temperatures over the period will be in the lower to mid 80s over
the day and only fall into the upper 60s to 70s overnight. Dewpoints
will also be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, leading to quite humid
conditions. Additionally, multiple nights of seeing patchy fog will
be possible.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The high pressure regime over the area departs upon the start of the
long range period with an upstream shortwave developing in the
subtropical Jet over NW Mexico Thursday. Temperatures here on out
will level off to the upper 80’s accompanied by mostly southerly
flow before the frontal pattern tempers these down to the mid/upper
70’s during the latter half of the weekend. Further moisture
advection from the Gulf will abut the stalling frontal boundary over
the ARKLATEX region from the weakening Great Lakes low pressure
detailed in previous discussion as it relates to the broad setup to
the weather developing through the weekend. Guidance is rather
fickle with developing precip over the area with the most favorable
signal well inland toward the northern tier SETX / SWLA counties and
parishes. Given the steep mid level lapse rates with PWAT samples of
the column reaching toward 1.80” cannot rule out isolated
thundershowers to develop further south of the stationary boundary
across the CWA just yet.

The frontal pattern remains stalled north of Louisiana through
Friday night as the above mentioned shortwave rides NE along the
axis from the S’rn TX toward the TN valley while perturbations of
the disturbance begin to smooth out. By Saturday with deeper
troughing along the boundary, further development of showers and
thunderstorms occurs, but again limits the most favorable signals
generally norther of the lower Acadiana / Atchafalaya area.
Nevertheless, ample moisture will be available for any supportive
forcing. An expansive surface high pressure will behind the frontal
pattern over the Midwest early Sunday accelerating the stationary
boundary to the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Winds along/north of the boundary
will shift out of the east and perhaps some northerly components.
Overall, between the National Blend of Models and other
consistencies within the deterministic models, Sunday afternoon will
carry the best chances of showers / storms to spread across the
region. The pattern continues to contain elements of uncertainty
toward the nature of the precipitation unfolding across the area
including amounts. Latest guidance closes out the event with
troughing consolidating to a coastal low that will shift east of the
area along the boundary into Monday morning with an acceleration of
the upper air pattern regionally. Currently probabilities are too
low for any modes of severe weather to be analyzed per most recent
SPC guidance during this time.

Kowalski/30

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Intermittent MVFR ceilings are expected to develop shortly after
midnight with brief IFR possible along with the possibility of
patchy fog should winds fall below about 6 knots. Any fog that
develops should dissipate by 14Z with VFR conditions to prevail
thereafter. Breezy southerly winds will again develop Monday
afternoon with continued MVFR CIGs possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Moderate onshore flow will will strengthen further today and even
moreso tomorrow as an area of low pressure forms and deepens over
the Plains. Moderate to light onshore flow will remain in place
through the upcoming week. Precipitation chances are negligible
until the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  83  66  84  68 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  80  69  81  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  83  69  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  81  69  82  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...66