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000
FXUS64 KLUB 200836
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
336 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The first wave of showers with isolated thunderstorms has already
moved northeast out of our area as of 3 AM. The elevated
thunderstorms produced frequent lightning, with MUCAPE around
1000J/kg while only a few hundreths of rainfall reached the ground
in Paducah, slightly more in Hackberry. The next wave is expected to
begin to develop in southeast New Mexico around sunrise and increase
in coverage and intensity through the morning hours into early
afternoon. Strong lift and elevated MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg
once again by mid-morning will produce another round of elevated
storms with a more saturated column from the surface up to almost
H50, periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be more widespread
into early afternoon. By late afternoon the shortwave trough axis
shifts east and the broader troughing developing east of the Rockies
becomes positively tilted. By evening, little to no instability will
be present, though light rainfall on the backside of the system will
linger through the evening hours, and mostly taper off after
midnight. Rainfall totals have trended down with this updated
forecast, with around a half inch across the southern South Plains,
and up to an inch over the southern Rolling Plains. Areas north of a
line from Morton to Lubbock to Paducah will likely see around a
quarter of an inch or less. High temperatures will struggle to climb
above 50 at most locations today with low daily high temperatures
likely to be broken, which is currently 55 on this day in 1923 for
Lubbock. By early tomorrow morning lows will be around 5-10
degrees below normal, upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Surface high pressure will settle into Oklahoma on Sunday bringing
an end to our precipitation chances. High temperatures will remain
on the cool side (upper 50s to lower 60s) as skies remain cloudy
through the afternoon. Upper-level ridging will expand into the
Midwest on Monday but quickly shift east by Tuesday morning as a
system moves into the Northern Plains. This system will help to
strengthen a lee surface low in southeastern Colorado on Monday
which will bring a return of southwesterly winds to our area. This
will help to boost temperatures back into the middle to upper 70s.
High temperature forecast for Tuesday is more uncertain as the
upper-level system will usher a surface cold front through the
forecast area. Some guidance shows this front moving through the
area as early as noon on Tuesday while the majority indicate a
late afternoon passage. Have kept high temperatures toward the
later timing passage which would allow temperatures to warm into
the low to mid 80s. Isentropic ascent Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning may lead to some showers and thunderstorms primarily
across the Rolling Plains. Thanks to the front, high temperatures
on Wednesday will be closer to average in the mid to upper 70s.
Ensemble clustering continues to show a large spread in both
timing and strength of an upper-level system moving over the West
Coast late next week. This leads to lower confidence in both high
temperatures and precipitation chances for the end of the week
although some dryline convection may be possible so we will need
to closely monitor this system. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through most of the
forecast period, especially at KPVW and KLBB as rainfall becomes
widespread across our area. Periods of thunderstorms are most
likely between the overnight hours through late this morning.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...55