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000
FXUS64 KMAF 152248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Main concern for the short term remains wind, fire, and dust
concerns west and evening severe storms east. UL low this
afternoon is over the UT/CO border continuing east. Main jet
streak is spreading from AZ into NM with a deepening surface
cyclone over NE CO. A dryline extends southward from it, running
just east of the NM-TX state line to west of Odessa and then east
of Ft. Stockton down into Mexico. East of the dryline, severe
weather is the main concern. 2PM SPC Mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE with 50-60 knots of shear. Ingredients certainly
are in place for severe storms, but strong capping will be the
limiting factor. If storms can form, all hazards are possible with
very large hail the main concern. Timing would be early evening
before storms move to the east and northeast. A tornado watch is
in effect until 9PM for the far eastern Permian Basin.

West of the dryline, strong winds and very dry conditions will
continue critical fire concerns. Gusts of 45-55 MPH have been
common toward the Pecos River Valley. These winds will continue
through the evening before gradually subsiding.

Quieter weather is expected for Tuesday. It will remain breezy on
the backside of the low, but main thrust of energy will continue
to depart. Highs will also not be as warm in the wake of a Pacific
front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Wednesday looks pretty quiet. Dry, zonal flow will establish
across the CWA, allowing highs to rebound. Flow is weak throughout
the column, so winds will be on the lighter side. Much of the area
will see repeat conditions for Thursday, but a fairly strong cold
front will be working its way southward. GFS shows it reaching the
northern border of the CWA by Thursday evening, but the NAM is
much faster. NBM 10th percentile picks up on this earlier passage
with the 25th percentile neglecting it. If the front arrives
early, highs across Gaines-Dawson-Borden-Scurry counties will be
10+ degrees cooler than what`s forecast now. Regardless, the front
will push through the area through the evening and overnight
hours, making it to the Mexico border by Friday morning.

Rain / thunderstorm chances enter the picture starting Friday
afternoon and evening ahead of a s/w. Initially, it will be across
mainly the eastern 2/3rd or 1/2 of the CWA, but chances spread
west overnight Friday and into Saturday. Eventually though,
chances start pushing back east as drier air moves back in with
the approach of the UL trough axis. All areas look to be dry again
by Monday as U/L ridging fills in behind the trough. Temperatures
Friday drop to near or below normal then much below normal
Saturday with the coolest day on Sunday. Temperatures begin to
recover on Monday but still below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Strong southwest winds continue across the western terminals with
gusts near 40 kts common. Gusts will diminish after sunset but
west winds will remain elevated 10-15 kts through the night. Winds
increase once again by late morning with gusts >20 kts by
afternoon. VFR prevails through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Primary fire concerns are the rest of the afternoon, especially
toward the Pecos River Valley and Guadalupe Mountains. Poor
overnight recoveries are expected as well for much of the area,
but winds will subside. Moisture east of a dryline will foster
better recoveries for eastern counties. By tomorrow afternoon, dry
air overtakes the entire CWA with min RH values dropping into the
single digits. Winds top out 10 to 20 MPH, so elevated fire
concerns will continue. Higher elevations will see near critical.
Wednesday and Thursday will continue to see very dry conditions,
but winds will only top out 10 to 15 MPH. A cold front begins to
push north to south, improving RH values. Rain / storm chances
return Friday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               54  88  53  89 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 50  85  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   59  91  63  91 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            55  87  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           48  74  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    49  83  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    46  79  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     54  85  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   54  85  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     52  88  53  91 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Andrews-Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos
     Basin-Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Ector-Gaines-Guadalupe Mountains
     Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Loving-
     Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-
     Reeves County Plains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-
     Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 2 AM CDT /1 AM MDT/ Tuesday for Eastern
     Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-
     Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Tuesday for Davis Mountains-Davis
     Mountains Foothills-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Ward-
     Winkler.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Chaves Plains-
     Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento Foothills and Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning until 1 AM MDT Tuesday for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM MDT Tuesday for Central Lea County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...29