Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 271126
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
626 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

The last lingering piece of an upper trough finally moves east of
the area today allowing for broad, flat ridging to build in.
Abundant sunshine will help mix modest westerly winds associated
with the ridge to the surface causing breezy conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures. Subsidence on the back of the
departing trough will stabilize the atmosphere enough so that we
will not see scattered showers and virga that have occurred over
the past several days.

Tonight a weak cold front sags south, entering the area after
sunset. The front will not actually bring any cold air with it as
temperatures aloft increase and mix dry adiabatically to the
surface  through the very thin surface air mass. In fact,
temperatures Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today
with highs easily reaching the 70s to low 80s in the Pecos River
and Rio Grande valleys.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Come 00z Friday, weak ridging remains overhead though a shortwave
trough is set to glide on the northern edge of the ridge through
the  central Rockies on Friday afternoon. This shortwave`s
attendant jet (with 500mb winds of 45-55kts) will lead to yet
another breezy to windy afternoon, especially for those in
Southeast New Mexico and the western high terrain. A few instances
of severe wind gusts are possible at Guadalupe Pass Friday
afternoon but this appears to be more of a marginal event. Upper
level ridging stays in control through the weekend until the next
large storm system moves inland over Baja by Monday. Ahead of this
system, upper flow becomes more southwesterly and surface winds
starts to increase. The real windy day looks to be on Monday with
a strong front set to push in by Tuesday. The only chance for rain
in the long term are some very low odds across the far northern
periphery of our CWA with Tuesday`s front.

Other than the wind, the main highlight of the long term is going
to be the warming trend and above normal temperatures for Easter
weekend. The ridge overhead combined with westerly downslope
winds on Saturday and Sunday could send temperatures well into the
upper 80s and low 90s. Midland could be looking at its first 90
degree day of 2024 with the probabilistic NBM suggesting a 50-60%
chance of exceeding 90 degrees on Easter Sunday. The above normal
warmth comes to a halt on Tuesday as the front brings temperatures
back down below average.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Light S/SW winds
this morning will shift to the W/NW by 15Z-18Z, becoming gusty
through the afternoon, with gusts to 25-30kt possible. Winds will
diminish after 28/00Z, becoming light and somewhat variable
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

While less windy than the last few days, one final shortwave
rounding the edge of the main longwave trough that has plagued our
region since Sunday passes through today, bringing yet another
day of breezy conditions. Northwest winds will blow 15-20 mph this
afternoon with gusts near 30 which is somewhat marginal and
doesn`t contribute much to RFTIs, however, much of the region
falls to around 10-15 percent bringing RFTIs to at least 2 in many
spots. While this doesn`t bode much concern, fuels along the
lower Pecos valley in Pecos and Terrel counties are approaching
the 75th percentile. With this and only modest moisture recovery
around 45-50 percent this morning, have issued a Rangeland Fire
Danger Statement for these counties for this afternoon and
evening.

Beyond today, dry conditions persist and a warming trend into the
weekend sends minimum humidity into the single digits. Outside of
Friday and Sunday afternoons (with Sunday being an especially windy
day), winds remain light and aren`t of concern though. The high ERCs
in the lower Trans Pecos may warrant elevated conditions for the
next few days but better overnight moisture recovery by this weekend
should help tame fuels a bit.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               70  37  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 68  36  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   75  44  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            71  40  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           58  41  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    65  34  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    63  32  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     68  37  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   68  38  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     71  38  80  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...84


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