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000
FXUS64 KMEG 131204
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
704 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Warmer and dry conditions are expected over the weekend into
early next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low
80s across most of the Midsouth. Rain and Thunderstorms return to
the region early Tuesday with the potential for some strong to
severe storms. Winds will also be a concern Tuesday. There won`t
be much of a cooldown behind the system early in the work week,
but cooler conditions are expected by Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

South wind will return to the Midsouth today as a surface high
shifts slowly east along the northern Gulf Coast and a surface
low strengthens in the northern Plains. As a result, expect high
temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than we experienced Friday
despite a cool start in the 40s. This morning should be the
coolest over the next week or so. Afternoon highs today should be
near 80 degrees across most of the region.

A broad transient ridge will deamplify over the weekend, but
another ridge over the Plains will shift over the area Monday. The
net result will be dry conditions with fairly uniform high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and morning lows in the
low 60s.

Our next storm system is set to arrive Tuesday. Ahead of this
system, a 988mb surface low over Nebraska and high pressure along
the East Coast will set up a 6-7mb pressure gradient across the
middle Mississippi River Valley. South winds around 25 mph with
gusts over 35mph will usher Gulf moisture back into the region
featuring dew points between 60 and 65 degrees. NBM probabilistic
guidance has a greater that 70% chance of sustained winds greater
than 25 mph Tuesday for the Missouri Bootheel and much of
northeast Arkansas. The probability of wind gusts of 40 mph or
higher in greater than 70% along and west of the Mississippi
River. Precipitable Water values are expected to reach near record
levels for middle April, surging to 1.6-1.75 inches along and
west of the Mississippi River. Moisture should not be a limiting
factor for strong to severe thunderstorms.

However, the surface and upper low look to be vertically stacked
as they move into Iowa by midday Tuesday. This is not the best
vertical profile or location of these features for a significant
outbreak of severe storms in the Midsouth. The GFS has very little
CAPE Tuesday in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri closer to the
dynamic support that should be maximized over central Missouri
into southern Illinois. Nevertheless, expect at least a portion of
the Midsouth along and west of the Mississippi River to be
highlighted for the chance or severe storms in the Storm
prediction Centers Day 4(Tuesday) outlook.

The airmass behind this storm system does not look much cooler at
all. Highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s Wednesday
and Thursday with a secondary cold front ushering in cooler
conditions by Friday. At least a few showers will likely remain in
the forecast each day Wednesday into next weekend.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period as upper
level ridging dominates. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit
as a deep trough approaches from the west overnight tonight,
warranting a mention of southwesterly LLWS around 45 kts after 09Z
along and west of the MS River. Surface winds should remain
southwesterly 6-8 kts today, increasing to 10-12 kts with higher
gusts after 09Z tonight.

CAD

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CAD