Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Miami, FL
000
FXUS62 KMFL 152344
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
744 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
A rather strong mid level ridge centered over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico will extend eastward towards South Florida through
the rest of this afternoon and into Tuesday. This will allow for
the dry north to northwesterly wind flow to continue in the mid to
upper levels. At the surface, high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will keep an easterly wind flow in place during
this time frame. With lower level moisture advection taking place,
humidity levels will continue to increase heading into Tuesday.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the upper 50s
across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 60s across the east
coast metro areas. High temperatures on Tuesday will rise into
the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid
to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
The extended period kicks off with residual dry air and surface
high pressure over the region. A warming trend will continue
through the week as the low level boundary moistens and the
persistent ridge of high pressure erodes. A weak surface front
will enter northern Florida during the middle to late portion of
the work week, however given the upper level synoptic forcing
advecting away from the region, it appears that the frontal
boundary will become frontolytic in nature and stall just to the
north of the region. Remaining on the southern side of the diffuse
boundary will allow for warm air advection to continue in
earnest, which will act to facilitate a continuing increase in
temperatures. The gradual warming trend will continue throughout
the work week and into the weekend, with some places reaching
into the lower 90s. Sea breeze boundaries could permit some
potential for showers and possibly thunderstorms to sneak back
into the forecast by the end of the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Light easterly winds tonight
become 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts by Tuesday afternoon across
the east coast terminals. At KAPF, winds will become west-
southwest after 20Z Tuesday as a Gulf breeze pushes inland.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
A moderate to fresh easterly wind flow will continue across the
local waters through the middle of the week. These winds will
slowly subside heading towards the end of the week as they veer
and become southeasterly. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
range from 2 to 4 feet through the middle of the week while seas
across the Gulf waters remain at 2 feet or less.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
A moderate risk of rip currents will continue this afternoon
and tonight across the Atlantic Coast beaches. The risk of rip
currents could increase heading towards the middle of the week
across the Atlantic Coast beaches as onshore flow strengthens.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 259 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Dry airmass will continue across South FL with high pressure in
control. Min RH values in the 30s are expected over interior and
SW FL locations today and again on Tuesday. Despite winds not
meeting critical thresholds, low RH values and persistent dry
weather will result in continued fire weather concerns.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 69 82 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
West Kendall 64 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0
Opa-Locka 67 84 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
Homestead 67 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 69 81 71 82 / 0 0 0 0
N Ft Lauderdale 68 81 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
Pembroke Pines 67 84 70 85 / 0 10 0 0
West Palm Beach 66 81 68 82 / 0 0 0 0
Boca Raton 68 82 70 82 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 64 87 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Culver