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000
FXUS62 KMFL 101318
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
918 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

No notable changes with the mid-morning update, another generally
dry day is expected over SFL as high pressure over the western
Atlantic retains its influence. Breezy SErly flow is expected with
temperatures near to just above seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Breezy southeasterly winds will prevail across South Florida today as
a pressure gradient remains between expansive surface ridging and an
approaching frontal system propagating across the southern United
States and northern Gulf of Mexico. Mid-level ridging remains situated
aloft across the area with a substantial dry layer across the area
indicated on yesterday evening`s 00z MFL sounding. While low-level
moisture has recovered in the lower layers of the boundary layer, a
substantial capping inversion and dry layer exists above the 850mb
layer. Thus expect another day of some sunshine intermixed with
stratocumulus bringing cloudy conditions from time to time. With the
limited vertical extent of incipient updrafts, rain chances will
remain minimal in nature across our area today. High temperatures
will reach the low 80s across the east coast metro area with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s prevailing elsewhere across the
region. Heat indices across inland southwestern Florida could reach
the lower 90s for several hours this afternoon.

A mid-level trough and accompanying surface low currently responsible
for the ongoing severe weather outbreak across Louisiana and Texas
will propagate north-northeastward across the southern United States.
An aforementioned frontal boundary will sweep across the Gulf of
Mexico and approach South Florida during the day on Thursday. Breezy
to gusty southerly winds will enhance during the day as diurnal
influences combine with the enhancement of veering low-level flow
out ahead of the boundary. Southerly flow across the area combined
with diurnal heating will result in a profile that is conducive for
well-above average temperatures with forecast highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s. With the ample moisture still present in the low levels
of the boundary layer, heat indices in the middle to upper 90s are
possible across inland locales. As the mid-level trough and surface
low depart northward across the southern United States and into the
Great Lakes region, the optimal forcing and kinematics for severe
weather will remain to the north of the region. Current timing of the
approach of the frontal boundary appears to be during the overnight
hours of Thursday into early Friday which would also limit any
influences from diurnal heating. The combination of a nocturnal
passage and the lack of synoptic forcing will keep the threat of
strong to severe storms low across the area, although a broken line
of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two could be
realized across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

With the frontal boundary sweeping across the region during the early
morning hours of Friday, a reinforcing shot of dry continental air
will flow into South Florida. As a surface ridge of high pressure
propagates eastward in the wake of the frontal boundary, the axis of
the surface ridge will settle over the western Atlantic waters late
on Friday into the upcoming weekend. This will veer surface flow from
a northerly direction to a northeasterly direction across the area
with winds remaining breezy in nature. High temperatures will return
to seasonal values with forecast highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
possible across the region. Although low-level moisture will recover
across the eastern half of South Florida due to the onshore
northeasterly winds this weekend, a residual dry column and lower RH
values across inland southwestern Florida could be possible which may
result in some limited fire concern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Generally E-SE winds sustained at 10-15kts will prevail with
gusts 20-25kts expected during the daytime hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Hazardous marine conditions continue across the local Atlantic
waters with a fresh to strong southeast breeze today. Hazardous marine
conditions are expected to continue in the Atlantic through at least
Thursday before a cold front crosses the area late in the week. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters through at
least Thursday evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Onshore southeasterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents
for the Atlantic beaches today into Thursday. Later this week,the
approach of a cold front could result in an elevated threat of rip
currents for the Gulf beaches, while an elevated threat persists for
the Atlantic beaches due to a lingering swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  75  87  73 /   0   0   0  30
West Kendall     84  71  89  70 /   0   0   0  20
Opa-Locka        84  73  90  72 /   0   0   0  30
Homestead        82  73  87  71 /   0   0   0  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  74  87  71 /   0   0  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  82  74  88  71 /   0   0  10  40
Pembroke Pines   84  73  90  72 /   0   0   0  40
West Palm Beach  82  72  89  68 /  10   0  10  40
Boca Raton       83  73  89  70 /   0   0  10  40
Naples           86  73  85  69 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

     High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Carr