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000
FXUS62 KMHX 140015
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
815 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight high pressure will move nearly overhead and then shift
offshore Sunday. On Monday a cold front will push south across
the Mid- Atlantic and stall, eventually lifting back north as a
warm front on Tuesday. High pressure ridging briefly builds back
into the Southeast around midweek before the next cold front
impacts the area late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 8 AM Saturday...No major changes with this update. Coastal
Flood Advisories for NOBX and Ocracoke were dropped earlier
today.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Sat...High pressure will build
nearly overhead tonight which will lead to calmer conditions
overnight. Good radiational cooling conditions with clear skies
present as winds become light to calm. With today`s dry airmass
overhead, lows will be efficiently chilly, with mid 40s interior
to low/mid 50s beaches under clr skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 3 PM Sat...High pres edges
offshore, with return flow bringing warming temps.
Thicknesses/hts swing back to above climo, translating to highs
in the 75-80 degree range inland, with upper 60s to near 70
beaches. These vals are running some 5 degrees above normal for
mid April.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 AM Sat... Some minor tweaks to the overall forecast but in
general a warm but pleasant week looks to be on tap.

Sun through Wed...We start the period out with upper level WNW flow
as an upper level trough to the northeast pulls further away with
this WNW to NW flow persisting through Monday as general broad
troughing off the East Coast deepens and upper level ridging
begins to build across the Central CONUS. As this occurs, a
weak mid level shortwave will be riding along this flow Sun
evening while a second weak s/w tracks across the Mid-Atlantic
Mon night. At the surface, ridging centered over the Southeast
will slowly push E`wards while to the north low pressure will
quickly track E`wards across New England on Sun with its
associated cold front tracking SE`wards into the Mid-Atlantic
Sun evening and on Monday. While dry air will keep precip out
of the forecast initially, a tightening pressure gradient Sun
evening between ridging to our south and the front to our north
will promote a brief uptick in SW`rly flow Sun afternoon and
evening with gusts up around 15-25 mph expected. With RH`s also
around the mid 20s to low 30s on Sun as well, expect another
day of elevated fire danger Sun afternoon across our Coastal
Plain. As we get into Mon, cold front finally makes its way
towards the Carolinas and recent guidance suggests enough
moisture may pool along and out ahead of the front for a few iso
showers to develop primarily along our northern tier before
this front stalls across ENC Mon night. Temps Sun and Mon remain
rather warm with highs getting into the 80s inland and 70s
along the coast and OBX while lows only get down into upper 50s
to low 60s.

By Tues upper level ridging builds over the Eastern Seaboard
while upper level troughing enters the Central CONUS. At the
surface stalled frontal boundary lifts N`wards as a warm front
Tuesday bringing a threat for some shower and thunderstorm
activity as lift and moisture begin to gradually increase across
ENC with the area likely remaining dry on Wed as high pressure
ridging briefly makes a reappearance across the region. Temps
continue to remain well above avg across ENC through mid week.

Thurs into the end of next week... Evolution of the late week
forecast becomes a bit murkier with respect to exact details, but
the overall evolution hasn`t changed much. Expect an upper level
trough with associated shortwave to approach the Eastern
Seaboard on Thursday and move through the region by Fri. At the
surface this will bring a cold front across the area by the end
of the work week bringing our next best threat for some precip
to end the period. Temps continue to remain well above avg
through Fri before cooling off behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 8 PM Saturday...VFR through the TAF pd. Winds have become
calm to light this evening, and skies are clear. Winds will
remain light until peak heating tomorrow, where SSW wind gusts
become 15-20kts. Models are showing a very low (less than 5%)
chance of fog with winds becoming calm tonight. However, with
Tds in the 30s we should remain dry enough at the surface to
prevent fog formation.


LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sun/...
As of 8 PM Sat...Headline free with this update as the linger
SCA for waters between Cape Hatteras and Ocracoke Inlet expired
at 8PM. Seas are 2-5 ft, and winds are W at 10 kt gusting to 15
kts. Winds and seas will continue decreasing through tonight as
high pressure moves to our south. Winds back sswrly on Sun with
speeds of 10-20 kt. Some infrequent gusts approaching 25 kt
late in the day.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Sat...Expecting benign boating conditions to start
the period with high pressure ridging extending northwards
across our waters. Expect our next chance at some small craft
conditions to occur Sun evening as the gradient tightens between
ridging to our south and a front to our north allowing winds to
become SW`rly Sun evening and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts
in excess of 25 kts while seas build to 4-5 ft Sun night. The
gradient will relax some on Mon as the cold front approaches and
ridging moves off to the east allowing SW`rly winds to decrease
closer to 10-15 kts while seas lower to 3-4 ft. Overall expect
10-20 kt SW`rly winds across all water and 3-5 ft seas across
our coastal waters from Tue into the end of the period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/RJ
SHORT TERM...TL/RJ
LONG TERM...RCF/OJC
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...TL/RCF