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000
FXUS64 KMOB 200939
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
439 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Similar to the past few nights, low ceilings are the predominant
forecast concern through mid-morning ahead of the rain showers
slowly filtering into the area. Light rain showers continue to slide
east across the region this morning, well ahead of schedule.
Coverage of showers and storms increases this afternoon and evening
as a cold front continues to lay down across the region and subtle
shortwaves drift overhead in the zonal flow aloft. There will be
ample instability with favorable lapse rates (especially across the
southern half of the area) for storms to tap into by this afternoon,
however, there isn`t a lot of shear (25kts south of the boundary).
It`s looking slightly more favorable for strong to potentially
severe storms this afternoon in this pattern with gusty winds being
the predominant threat (although can`t rule out the hail threat
north of the boundary later today). We will continue to keep an eye
on trends this morning given that the coverage of showers is already
over performing at this hour. Storms this afternoon will also be
efficient rainmakers as they train along/near the boundary. There is
a signal in the HREF ensemble guidance for upwards of 2-3 inches of
rain by late afternoon across the coastal counties (north of I-10)
with a stronger signal across our southeast Mississippi counties.
There are some indications in the guidance that we may see a brief
lull in activity overnight (prior to midnight) before another
shortwave pivots into the Deep South. Another round of rain is
expected early on Sunday, but the bulk of the coverage looks to stay
north of the Highway 84 corridor in the morning. Heavy rain will
eventually slide across the entire area late Sunday morning through
the early afternoon hours. Not anticipating thunderstorms with the
activity on Sunday as the front will be well to our south - this
will all be post-frontal rain. Temperatures likely won`t rise much
on Sunday in the wake of the front with temperatures hovering in the
mid to upper 50s inland while staying in the 60s along the coast.
Not exactly great beach weather on Sunday.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains LOW through the middle of
this week. However, rip current MOS probabilities are indicating a
quick bump to just below MODERATE this afternoon along the Florida
panhandle, so we will need to keep an eye on conditions at the
Florida beaches this afternoon. 07/mb

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The positively-tilted upper trough approaching the Ohio River valley
will swing southeastward over the Tennessee Valley and adjacent Gulf
Coast states through noon Monday, and then move eastward off the
southeast coast in a more neutral fashion by Monday evening. A dry
northwesterly flow pattern aloft will generally occur across our
forecast area through midweek behind this departing feature,
followed by shortwave ridging aloft to our west building over the
forecast area Thursday and Friday. Surface high pressure is forecast
to build from the Plains to the Gulf Coast states early next week,
with surface ridging remaining prevalent into Friday. Temperatures
will start off chilly Monday and Tuesday morning, with lows in the
40s over inland locations and in the lower to mid 50s along the
immediate coast. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday should
trend warmer in the low to mid 80s over most inland areas during the
middle to latter part of the week (mid 70s to near 80 along the
coast). /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Patchy fog is possible near the coast, especially in the bays and
sounds, through the pre-dawn hours this morning. Locally higher
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms through Sunday. Northerly
winds increase to exercise caution levels by Sunday afternoon behind
a cold front with winds ramping up to advisory levels briefly Sunday
night into early Monday morning. After Monday, there are no
marine impacts for the remainder of the week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  59  65  47  72  49  76  53 /  40  30  70   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   81  65  69  51  73  53  73  55 /  30  20  60  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      77  67  71  54  73  55  73  59 /  20  10  60  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   83  58  63  44  72  44  78  49 /  60  50  70   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  77  51  61  43  70  42  77  49 /  60  70  70   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      79  52  59  42  68  43  75  48 /  60  70  70   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   85  62  68  46  74  45  78  49 /  40  30  60  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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