Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 221740
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...MESOSCALE UPDATE, NEW AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The main area of rain with embedded thunderstorms has been moving
east along the immediate coastal areas this morning and has now
generally moved east of our AL coastal counties and is working its
way into the western FL panhandle. Some brief periods of heavy
rainfall are associated with this feature, but rainfall amounts
have generally remained fairly light (mainly 0.25 inches or less
across most of the area). The main issue has been the development
of a weak wake low on the back side of the precip area, which has
be resulting in gusty winds (up to around 3o mph at times) across
coastal AL and out over the Gulf waters. These gusty winds will
likely continue into portions of the western FL panhandle and
adjacent coastal waters into the early afternoon hours.

After this main rain area moves east, we will be looking at a less
widespread nature to the rainfall, as isolated to scattered
showers will then continue at times across our area through
tonight and possibly even into early Saturday morning as the upper
level trough moves east across the region.  Considerable cloud cover
and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower
60s) will limit instability.  However, most CAM solutions indicate a
few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon.  Relatively
cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells
that can form. Overall though, the severe threat remains rather
low for the remainder of the afternoon and for tonight.

As we look ahead Saturday through Sunday, some models indicate
that lingering showers could be possible into early Saturday, but
by midday Saturday and continuing through Sunday night as deep
layer ridging moves east across our area in the wake of the
currently passing upper trough. Temperatures, especially daytime
highs, will be a little below seasonal norms, with highs Saturday
primarily in the mid and upper 60s and then in the upper 60s to
lower 70s on Sunday. Overnight lows will likely be around normal
as well, perhaps slightly below what we would expect this time of
the year (especially for Saturday night). Lows tonight look to be
in the 50s across the entire area, cooling into the low to mid
40s for Saturday night, and then back into the 50s for most of us
on Sunday night. DS/12

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

MVFR to occasionally IFR ceilings this afternoon through tonight,
with isolated to scattered showers possible at any time as an
upper low moves east across the area. Outside of rain areas
surface visibilities should by mainly VFR, but MVFR in those rain
areas and also MVFR visibilities a little more widespread tonight
as patchy light fog develops across the region. Winds mostly east
to southeast today into this evening, gusty at times, possibly up
to around 20 to 25 knots (especially right in the wake of the
departing area of showers and storms that is moving on off to the
east of our area late this afternoon). By Saturday morning, winds
shift to the northwest across the region, and will be gusty in the
15 to 25 knot range (possibly even a little higher at times). DS/12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      55  72  45  71  56  72  63  75 /  30   0   0   0   0   0  40  70
Pensacola   58  72  49  70  58  71  64  75 /  30   0   0   0   0   0  20  70
Destin      58  71  51  70  57  71  64  74 /  40   0   0   0   0   0  10  60
Evergreen   54  71  40  74  49  74  59  75 /  40   0   0   0   0   0  30  70
Waynesboro  53  70  40  73  51  71  60  73 /  40   0   0   0   0  10  60  70
Camden      54  68  39  73  51  72  59  72 /  50   0   0   0   0   0  40  70
Crestview   55  72  43  74  50  74  59  76 /  40  10   0   0   0   0  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
     GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

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