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000
FXUS63 KMPX 150349
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1049 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain is expected Monday night into Wednesday. Most
  locations should see around an inch of rain along with a few
  rumbles of thunder.

- Below-normal temperatures late this week through next weekend
  with highs in the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing lows are
  likely Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Northerly winds behind a cold front are advecting cooler air
into the region, but full sunshine & deep mixing have allowed
for temperatures to reach the 70s across much of the area this
afternoon. RH values are very low with drier air in place, with
wind gusts around 20 mph leading to elevated fire weather
conditions. Winds become easterly tomorrow in response to a
surface low deepening & advancing out of the central plains, but
dry advection over the Great Lakes will lead to another day with
very low RH values as low as the upper teens across western
Wisconsin. WInds will be light across Wisconsin where RH values
will be lowest, but elevated fire weather conditions are
expected again tomorrow across western Minnesota where gusts of
20-25 mph are likely during the afternoon. Temperatures will
vary from west to east, with highs in the mid 60s across western
WI, while highs could reach the upper 70s under the thermal
ridge across southwest Minnesota. A band of warm-advection
driven showers looks likely during the morning over the eastern
Dakotas, & some of this activity will likely spread into western
and central Minnesota during the day. However, the very dry air
near the surface will likely limit much of this precipitation
from reaching the ground outside of a few sprinkles..

A widespread rain event remains on track Tuesday into Wednesday,
as a vertically stacked system matures over the central plains &
tracks a surface low along the Minnesota/Iowa border. Showers
and thunderstorms will spread north out of Iowa early Tuesday
morning, with some isolated small hail possible with the
strongest storms. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the day on Tuesday, with southeasterly winds
increasing as the surface low approaches the area. Wind gust of
40-50 mph looks possible over much of the area, potentially
necessitating a Wind Advisory. Models remain consistent with
the track of the surface low remaining south of the MN/IA
border, along with the greatest instability and best environment
for severe weather. Isolated severe thunderstorms can’t be
ruled out during the day across far-southern Minnesota if the
surface low tracks slightly farther north, but overall the
severe threat Tuesday & Wednesday looks low. Scattered rain
showers will continue overnight through Wednesday morning as the
surface low exits the region to the east, but the bulk of the
rainfall with this event will fall on Tuesday. Ensemble guidance
suggests high likelihood for the entire area to see at least an
inch of rain Tuesday through Wednesday, with a high end
potential up to 2 wherever multiple rounds of showers &
thunderstorms impact the same location during the day on
Tuesday. Model guidance has shifted more south easterly for the
highest potential for rainfall amounts near 2”, with the
heaviest rain now more likely across Iowa & southeast Minnesota.

Much colder air builds into the region behind the midweek system
as a sprawling region of Canadian high pressure builds into the
central CONUS through the weekend. Daytime temperatures will
likely be around 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 40s.
Meanwhile, freezing temperatures are looking more likely for the
entire area (outside of the inner Twin Cities metro) Thursday &
Friday night, which could damage any new and blossoming
vegetation. Below-normal temperatures continue through the
weekend, with a gradual warming to more normal temperatures by
Tuesday. Isolated diurnal rain showers are possible over the
weekend with the cold air aloft, but no appreciable rainfall is
expected going into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Increasing mid level clouds will occur overnight with light
winds. A few light showers may graze AXN and STC Monday
morning. Easterly winds will increase with some gusts across
western and southern MN by Monday afternoon.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely Chc TS. Wind SE 20-25G30-35 kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely Chc TS. Wind N bcmg NE 15-20G30 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind W 15-20G30 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for Brown-Martin-Redwood-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Borghoff