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000
FNUS73 KMPX 151048
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Eagle Lake A RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Eagle Lake A Rx fire, relative humidity will be roughly 50-60
percent at ignition, before falling to 20-25 percent this
afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible early this morning,
however they will not amount to much and elevated fire weather concerns will
persist through the day. Light early morning winds will increase out of the east,
sustaining between 15-20 mph this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph possible.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /62900 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............46  49  53  57  60  62  65  66  67  67  66  65
RH..............60  56  46  37  32  28  25  23  23  22  24  26
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..10  12  12  13  13  13  14  15  17  18  20  17
20 FT wind gust.16  18  18  18  20  20  20  22  23  25  26  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.4 1.6
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.16  17  17  17  17  18  20  20  21  22  24  22
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 3 am. Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 16 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (70400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (10300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Max 54.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 36 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the morning and early
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (62500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 28 to 37 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Blatz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410787.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_blatz@fws.gov