National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS66 KMTR 221454
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
754 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Warm inland temperatures expected through today before cooler,
unsettled weather returns Tuesday and continues through late week.
Light rain chances for Thursday night and into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 753 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Satellite shows a similar pattern to yesterday with the Monterey Bay
region blanketed in low level stratus and clear conditions
throughout the rest of the Bay Area. Marine layer heights are
similar to yesterday with heights around 1000-1200 feet. For the
Monterey Bay area, stratus looks to dissipate by mid to late
morning. Highs today will be in the mid 70`s to low 80`s inland in
the upper 50`s to lower 60`s along the coast. High temperatures
should run about 1-3 degrees cooler today than they were yesterday.
Today will be the last day with above normal temperatures this week
with below normal temperatures forecast tomorrow through the end of
the work week.

Rest of forecast looks on track with widespread stratus to return
later today and sharp drop in temperatures starting tomorrow.&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Mostly sunny conditions are expected inland today with temperatures
expected to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. Meanwhile, a southerly
surge is likely to occur by late morning or early afternoon which
would limit warming to the upper 50s to mid 60s. As stratus moves
inland, orographic lift is likely to produce widespread drizzle in
coastal regions and in the favored west/southwest facing slopes.
However, precipitation will be light and generally only produce a few
hundredths of an inch.

Coastal drizzle will continue into tonight and early Tuesday morning
with temperatures expected to cool into the mid 40s to low 50s
regionwide. Widespread cloud cover is likely to spread into the
valleys as well (minus the Santa Clara Valley).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 118 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Temperatures on Tuesday drop by 10-15 degrees across the interior
with highs generally in the 60s as an upper level low approaches the
region. Coastal drizzle is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as well with aforementioned low pressure offshore. The low
pressure system will move inland Wednesday night into Thursday
morning with unsettled conditions to persist.

Thursday night into Friday a shortwave trough will move through the
region and bring chances for light rain. Precipitation amounts have
trended downward as of this morning, with only a few hundredths of
an inch expected regionwide. Afternoon temperatures through this
period are forecast to be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with
overnight lows largely in the mid 40s to low 50s. Ever so slight
warming is expected for this upcoming weekend with interior areas
reaching the low 70s with drier conditions returning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Stratus this morning sits just off the Monterey coast, and is slowly
curling around into Monterey Bay where it is expected to bring IFR
CIGs through at least sunrise. Elsewhere, its VFR across the region
and expected to remain so through the evening today. Winds are
currently light, but will increase into the afternoon today to
become breezy to moderate generally out of the W/SW for most
terminals. Terminals near coastal gaps are likely to see a few gusts
nearing 20 knots into the afternoon today. Winds will be slow to
ease into the night, but will generally only to around 7-10 knots
for most terminals. Stratus makes a return in Monterey Bay and North
Bay terminals in the early evening of Monday, bringing MVFR
conditions as stratus continue to push northwards along the
California coast. More inland terminals are likely to see stratus
reducing CIGs to MVFR conditions closer to the end of the TAF period.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the late night of Monday. Winds out of
the S/SW through the TAF period and 10-15 knots. Gusts up to about
20 knots are likely in the late afternoon, but are expected to
subside into the late evening. Stratus will linger off the coast in
the evening, but is expected to push into the terminal vicinity
close to midnight, bringing MVFR conditions.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...The marine layer this morning currently
sits at about 400-500 feet per the Ft. Ord profiler, and satellite
imagery shows stratus just outside the periphery of the KMRY
terminal. Moderate to high confidence in IFR CIG development this
morning, with clearing not expected until closer to 18Z. Winds SW
at KMRY this afternoon and breezy around 13 knots, with gusts up
to 20 knots. Into the early evening, models seem to indicate
stratus beginning to advect inland, but seem to agree that KSNS is
likely to see MVFR CIGs developing prior to KMRY, closer to
00-02Z. MVFR conditions last through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Northwesterly winds have largely eased this morning. Gentle to
moderate winds persist through the day today, but slowly turn to
become more southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
Near Monterey Bay, winds this afternoon may gust up to about 20
knots, but are expected to diminish into the evening. Starting
Wednesday, winds turn once more to become moderate and northerly.
Larger northwest swell abates through the day today, with wave
heights reducing to around 6 to 7 feet. Light southerly swell
continues to move through the waters this weekend and through the
upcoming work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to
     Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea