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000
FXUS64 KOHX 150147
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
847 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

We are wrapping up a beautiful weekend with clear skies across the
area with temperatures still in the mid 60s to lower 70s. The
winds have decreased and will continue to do so over the next
couple of hours. They will not go completely calm but remain
around 5 mph overnight. Lows will drop into the mid 50s on the
plateau and low 60s west of the plateau. The forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Very warm day across Middle Tennessee with current temperatures
in the mid 70s to low 80s thanks to very gusty southwest winds up
to nearly 40 mph at times. With ample sunshine this afternoon,
highs should easily reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints
have mixed out into the upper 30s to low 40s across our northwest
half, which is leading to marginal fire danger conditions with the
combination of low RH and gusty winds. However, our recent
rainfall should help mitigate this threat. Radar is also showing
some echoes across our southwest counties in association with
some high level moisture, but none of this is anticipated to
reach the ground.

Continued warm and dry weather is anticipated into tomorrow thanks
to a building upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico northward to the
Ohio Valley, along with a persistant southwest to westerly
30-35kt LLJ. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 50s to
low 60s, with highs tomorrow once again in the upper 70s to mid
80s. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to
develop across Kentucky on Monday afternoon along a southward
sagging cold front, but all of this activity is expected to stay
to our north.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Continued warm and dry conditions are expected through Tuesday
before an intense upper low and associated 90-100kt H5 jet moves
out of the Plains into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop to our west on Tuesday
into Tuesday night, but weaken as they enter Middle Tennessee
early Wednesday morning as they outrun the more favorable
instability to our west and the main upper jet dynamics to our
north. In the wake of the morning activity, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms appear likely to develop along a weak
cold front moving across the midstate Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night. Uncertainty continues on how strong or
widespread this activity may get as the upper level low weakens
while moving even further northward away from us, taking the main
upper forcing with it. Nevertheless, forecast soundings continue
to show quite favorable parameters for some strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of the front, especially across our northwest
half, so we will have to keep a close eye on this potential.

Cold front will sag south of the midstate on Thursday with
dry and slighter cooler conditions anticipated. Guidance has
shifted to a slower, warmer and much wetter pattern for the end
of the forecast period, as the aforementioned front shifts back
northward Thursday night into Friday, then oozes back southward
over the weekend while several shortwave troughs pass overhead.
This overrunning-type setup as shown on 12Z guidance would bring
us several waves of hard-to-time rain and thunderstorms from
Friday through Sunday. For now have kept pops on the low side and
temps near the NBM due to this warmer and wetter trend, but
further adjustments to the long range forecast are likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

TAFs are VFR. High pressure centered near the Gulf Coast is the
dominant weather feature influencing Middle Tennessee`s weather
this evening. Meanwhile, a warm front has developed north of the
Ohio Valley, so we find ourselves wedged between with a strong
pressure gradient producing gusty winds, but wind speeds will
relax somewhat by tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  84  63  83 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    62  82  63  81 /   0  10  10  10
Crossville     56  78  58  78 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       59  83  62  81 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     57  78  61  79 /   0  10  10  10
Jamestown      57  78  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   58  82  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   59  84  62  82 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        61  82  64  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Rose