Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230659
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
159 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Look for showers to continue pushing eastward and exit eastern
portions of our area by mid morning hours today if not sooner.
Dry conditions will prevail across our area as remainder of today
progresses through Sunday. This due to surface ridging influences
from our north building in behind surface cold frontal passage
that will push southeast of our area by sunrise today with upper
levels taking on more ridging characteristics as tonight through
at least the Sunday morning hours progress. Due to development of
this northerly based cold air advection scenario building into our
area, highs today will be a few degrees below seasonal normal
values ranging mainly in upper 50s, mid 50s Cumberland Plateau
Region. Lows tonight are expected to bottom out in low to mid 30s,
and maybe even slightly below freezing around 30 degrees Upper
Cumberland Region. There maybe some locations that experience
frost conditions tonight, but with winds overnight expected in
10 to 20 mph range, do not expect widespread areas of frost to
develop. As surface ridging influences shift more eastward and
southwesterly upper level flow begins to develop as Sunday
afternoon hours progress, look for high temperatures on Sunday to
warm back to once again seasonally warm values, mid to upper 60s,
lower 60s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. With
once again conditions drying out, with favorable low minimum
afternoon relative humidity values and 20 foot wind speeds,
most of mid state region has likely potential of reaching
marginal fire danger thresholds Sunday afternoon also.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 159 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Seasonally warm conditions will continue to prevail through
Tuesday. Model runs continue their trending in showing low level
atmospheric pressure gradient influences strengthening as Sunday
night through potentially Tuesday afternoon progresses bringing
breezy to windy conditions to mid state region during this time
frame. Wind gusts 40+ mph look to be common on Monday night. If
this trend in model runs continue, it is becoming increasingly
likely that a wind advisory will be issued for Monday night into
possibly Tuesday morning time frame. Despite a little higher
afternoon minimum relative humidity values on Monday afternoon,
20 foot winds will strengthen and most of mid state region will
once again likely experience marginal fire danger thresholds. A
strong cold front will push across mid state region on Tuesday
also. Numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will begin to occur Monday night lasting through Tuesday across
our area. Any organized severe storm potential continues to appear
on lower side. Total rainfall amounts with this system will range
from around 1.25 inches Upper Cumberland Region to approaching
3.0 inches far southwestern locations. Surface high pressure
influences across central plains will push eastward as Wednesday
through Friday progresses, bringing a return of dry conditions to
our area with upper level ridging influences building in late work
week. After seasonally cool highs Wednesday and Thursday with
seasonally cool lows Tuesday night through Thursday night also,
look for once again high temperatures to rise above seasonal
normal values by Friday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Fluctuations in flight categories continues as -RA moves through
the area. Lower cigs are expected to move in early this morning,
with SRB/CSV having the best chance. -RA will begin to move out by
12Z, and all TAF sites should return to VFR by 20Z.
Northerly winds throughout the TAF period, with sustained winds 10
to 15 kts and gust up to 25 kts expected through much of the
daytime. Timing will vary from west to east, but these conditions
can generally be expected between 10Z and 00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 60 35 69 48 / 0 0 0 0
Clarksville 56 32 64 48 / 0 0 0 0
Crossville 54 30 62 43 / 20 0 0 0
Columbia 60 33 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 55 32 65 47 / 20 0 0 0
Jamestown 54 29 64 43 / 20 0 0 0
Lawrenceburg 60 33 67 48 / 10 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 60 33 69 48 / 10 0 0 0
Waverly 58 35 66 50 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Adcock