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000
FXUS62 KRAH 131644
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
144 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the SE US through the weekend. The
high will move near Bermuda by Monday and will promote noticeably
warmer conditions through the middle part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 902 AM Saturday...

Little change with the morning update. Surface analysis shows a
tight pressure gradient with the high to our southwest and the
trough well to our northeast. Adjusted dewpoints and winds to better
match expected afternoon mixing from the RAP/HRRR. This will still
result in low RH levels as low as 20 percent perhaps later this
afternoon, still warranting the increased fire danger with the gusts
in the 25-35 mph range. The previous discussion follows.

Showers over the mtns associated with DCVA as energy swings through
the trough will dissipate as they move off the higher terrain in the
downslope flow regime.

The upper trough over the Eastern trough associated with the deep
low pressure system moving north into Canada will pivot NE and away
from the area today. Synoptic scale height rises on the order of 120-
150m will result in strong subsidence across the region and ample
sunshine as surface high pressure over the northern GOM builds
eastward into the SE US.

Amidst seasonably deep mixing, pressure gradient will remain
sufficiently compressed, especially during the 1st half of the day,
to yield another day of gusty conditions. Though not as strong as
what we`ve seen the past two days, expect W-NWLY gusts of 25 to 30
mph, with some higher gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible across the
northern Piedmont. Highs today ranging from near 70 north to mid 70s
south, which is near-normal for mid April.

Winds will decouple this evening and tonight as the surface builds
across the SE US. Under clear skies, lows once again in the lower to
mid 40s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Surface high pressure over the Southeast US will gradually build
eastward to Bermuda Sun/Sun night. Meanwhile over the mid-Atlantic,
A piedmont trough will develop on Sun and remain over the area into
Sun night, with increased southwesterly flow into the area. A cold
front will slide south toward the area through Sun night, but as of
latest model guidance should remain north of the area through Sun
night. Aloft, a s/w disturbance will track through the Carolinas Sun
night, resulting in a brief period of increased cloudiness and
perhaps a sprinkle. Temperatures should be well above normal, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to around
60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

Low confidence for the long term forecast as model agreement has
little consensus.  An upper level low will make its way east-
northeast from the Southwest US Monday to the Great Lakes region by
Wednesday. Ahead of the associated trough, an upper level ridge will
move across the Mid-Atlantic early to mid week before the negativity
titled upper trough axis is over our region Thursday. At the
surface, the associated low pressure moving across the Central
Plains Monday and Tuesday will eventually make its way up over the
Great Lakes region while the attached cold front will move into the
Mid-Atlantic. Timing is still uncertain and some models show a
primary and secondary cold front moving through the region Thursday
and Friday. For now going with an isolated chance of showers and
storms Thursday with another better chance for the next round on
Friday as another front moves through the region. Temperatures will
be well above normal for the long term with highs in the mid to
upper 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s Monday through
Thursday. Temperatures Thursday and especially Friday will be
dependent on timing of the front(s) and how much coverage Central NC
receives.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1210 PM Saturday...

There is high confidence that VFR conditions will prevail for the 24-
hour TAF period. NW winds will continue to be gusty this afternoon,
between 25 and 30 kt. Winds will diminish tonight before increasing
once again for Sun afternoon, this time out of the SW. Gusts on Sun
will not be as strong as today but likely hover in the 20-25 kt
range.

Outlook: There is a threat of LLWS Sun night as a 40-50 kt LLJ
advects overhead. A stalled boundary over a portion of VA/NC could
warrant some very isolated chances of a shower or storm Mon and Tue,
but otherwise VFR should dominate during the upcoming week.

VFR conditions will continue through the middle of next
week, as high pressure builds across and offshore the Southeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Increased fire danger will result across most of central North
Carolina from 10 AM to 7 PM on Saturday. Northwesterly winds of 15
to 20 mph will gust between 25 and 30 mph, along with low relative
humidity as low as 25 percent. Refer to your local burn-permitting
authority on whether you may burn. If you do burn, exercise extreme
caution.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...Kren/CBL
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Kren
FIRE WEATHER...Kren