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000
FXUS61 KRLX 200624
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler/drier this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday
ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the
area Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 940 PM Friday...

The forecast remains on track. Did however decide to adjust
temperatures slightly to keep them on track.

As of 720 PM Friday...

The forecast remains on track. No changes were necessary this
time around, however thunderstorm probability at this point is
almost nil and there are some chances for thunderstorms in the
forecast still, but was inclined to leave them in due to the
cold front being in our area still.

As of 1258 PM Friday...

Cold front, currently near the Ohio River will continue to push east
this afternoon and evening, ending up east of the CWA late tonight.
Showers and storms will refire along this front, and some breaks in
the clouds have been noted, which will help to increase instability
and storm development this afternoon. Still a possibility for an
isolated strong to severe storm, mainly across southern portions of
the CWA, with a damaging wind risk the main threat.

Conditions will improve late tonight with some clearing possible.
Much in the way of fog development is not anticipated due to a light
wind lingering across the area before pressure gradient relaxes
towards morning. Saturday looks to be dry, with mid to high clouds
returning later in the period from a disturbance to our south
and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the balance of the weekend
into early next week as surface high pressure slowly spreads east
across the middle of the country whilst Canadian Arctic high
pressure largely respects the border

Monday morning looks to be the coolest of this stretch with
widespread frost and some patchy freeze possible where the growing
season is open.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back
into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern
stream low rising the baroclinic zone along the Canadian border
slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. This should
yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime highs across
the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid a modest
uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4s of an inch. A cold front
associated with the aforementioned low will drag across the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a third to half
of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability looks
rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any
chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal
passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture
plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low
level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers
with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

With the cool and relatively dry air in place Thursday morning,
could see some additional patchy frost across the north. The balance
of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for
precipitation looming for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 129 AM Saturday...

Most of the lingering light showers have moved northeast of EKN and
BKW tonight. MVFR low stratus may be possible to affect BKW and
EKN through at least 12Z before dissipating. Otherwise, clouds
will continue to raise from west to east with VFR conditions
across PKB, HTS and CRW through the overnight hours.

Guidance suggest clearing will spread from west to east overnight
through 12Z Saturday. Widespread VFR conditions are expected
Saturday and Saturday night.

Winds will stay out of the northwest and pick up in intensity
slightly for the afternoon where gusts in the low 20`s will be
possible through the afternoon at most, if not all sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/20/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...SL/JZ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ