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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160729
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
229 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A vertically stacked surface and upper-low are forecast to
translate east into the Central Plains today allowing for
increased mid-level southwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex. A
longitudinally oriented surface boundary from the base of the low
will move east across Texas today and move into the ArkLaTex this
evening before becoming east-west oriented and nearly stationary
by Wednesday morning. Convergence along the frontal boundary
within an airmass loaded with moisture will allow for showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon and tonight. With
the stronger forcing and instability focused closer to the
evolving mid-latitude low, the severe threat across the ArkLaTex
will be limited with no significant threats expected. Afternoon
high temperatures will range from the mid 80s across north
Louisiana to the mid 70s across the I-30 corridor.

Frontal boundary to become oriented parallel to the upper-level
west-southwest flow this evening allowing precipitation to
translate northeast of the ArkLaTex while gradually diminishing.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s.

On Wednesday, upper-flow to become nearly zonal allowing for
neutral instability characterized by widespread cloudcover. Not
expecting much in the way of precipitation, however can`t rule out
a stray shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures on Wednesday to
average in the 80s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 137 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A surface low across Oklahoma will be driven east as high pressure
surges south across the Great Plains. A surface boundary in the
wake of the low and ahead of the approaching surface high will
serve as the focus for convection Thursday evening with a few
strong to severe thunderstorms possible across portions of
southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northeast Texas.

Surface high to build across the region on Friday, becoming
centered across the Red River Valley of north Texas by Monday.
The combination of increased cold-air advection at the surface
along with an upper-level disturbance drifting across the region
could result in periods of widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms from Friday night through much of the weekend.
Conditions to improve late in the weekend as upper-level ridging
builds areawide and the surface high becomes centered across the
ArkLaTex. Temperatures on Sunday to range from highs in the 60s to
lows on Monday morning in the upper 40s. Otherwise, a gradual
warming trend expected thereafter. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

For the 16/06Z TAF period, MVFR cigs are expected to prevail
through the period as a slowly moving frontal boundary approaches
from the west. VCTS conditions may be possible across TXK from
16/18Z to 17/00Z. /16/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  72  86  70 /  40  10  10  10
MLU  86  70  84  68 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  78  64  83  64 /  70  20   0  10
TXK  79  68  84  67 /  70  30   0  10
ELD  83  68  84  66 /  40  30   0  10
TYR  81  70  84  69 /  40   0   0  10
GGG  81  70  84  68 /  40  10   0  10
LFK  85  70  87  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...16