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000
FXUS64 KSHV 120013
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
713 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Top of the hour observations are gusting in the teens across I-30
and still some plus 20 mph speeds along and south of I-20. And as
expected, we are now below criteria for the advisory and it has
been allowed to expire. Quick update now for that headline
removal, but we will check mid evening for possible updates to
overnight lows. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

As the weekend dawns, the  upper level ridge axis will be positioned
over the ArkLaTex, making for another few days of quiet and dry
conditions for the Four State Region. The warming trend associated
with the ridge will see highs soaring into the low to mid 80s during
the afternoon hours, with lows likewise climbing from the 40s into
the 50s and 60s.

A large developing upper level low will advance onshore and into the
western CONUS late in the weekend, with its attendant upper level
trough commencing its eastward journey by the start of the week.
The ArkLaTex will be in the transition period between upper level
features as the week begins, with southwest flow funneling
moisture into the region, providing ample fuel for the return of
showers and storms as soon as Monday afternoon, although some
uncertainty remains regarding exact timing. As of this writing,
it looks like central Oklahoma and north central Texas will see
severe storms Monday and Monday night, but the extent to which
impacts affect the ArkLaTex remains to be seen. If the low treks
more north by east as the latest GFS indicates, severe impacts
may pass us by to the north. This will, as always, bear careful
examination in the coming days.

This return to an unsettled pattern looks to generally continue
through to the end of this extended forecast period, with areas of
discernible PoPs present throughout with few interruptions, and
brief ones at that, particularly for zones along and north of the I-
20 corridor as the week continues. Temperatures look to remain warm
throughout, with most of the region in the mid 80s and some sites
pushing into the upper 80s by the middle of next week, with lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

For the 12/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected with mostly
SKC throughout the period. Gusty W/NW winds earlier this afternoon
will quickly decouple later this evening to around 5 kts or less,
increasing slightly from the W/SW on Friday between 5-10 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  77  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  39  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  44  77  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  48  78  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  46  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  47  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...19