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000
FXUS64 KSJT 211904
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
204 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Clouds have hung on across much of West Central Texas this
afternoon, and where the clouds did break and allow more sun,
additional stratocumulus is redeveloping. Temperatures remaining
in the 60s for most areas.

Surface high shifts across the area tonight, allowing winds to go
light and then start to turn back to the south on Monday. Until
then, dry air mass in place tonight and with lighter winds, will
be cool by morning. Lows dropping well into the 40s, likely lower
40s in most areas. Would not be surprised to see a few cold air
drainage areas drop into the upper 30s. Warmer on Monday with
returning south winds. Highs bouncing back into the low to mid 70s
area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Early this morning, the mid-level trough axis that brought much-
needed rain to the area has moved eastward. This has allowed
northwest flow aloft to start settling over the region. However,
the cool and wet airmass in the low-levels remains in place and
should persist as a surface high moves southward into the southern
Plains today and will continue to push cooler air into the region
via northeasterly winds. The resulting stout inversion in the
low-levels should help cloud cover to persist for most of the
day. Initially, RAP soundings show the cloud depth anywhere
between 6000-8000ft. Some thermal mixing should still occur,
which would allow some breaks in cloud cover to appear by this
afternoon, mainly across the Big Country. Otherwise the Concho
Valley southward will likely remain mostly cloudy to overcast
through the day. High temperatures are expected to reach the low
to mid 60s, but this will depend highly on how much insolation can
break through the clouds. Overnight, low level winds should
become more southerly, which should help cloud cover to break up a
bit more. Lows should fall into the low to mid 40s across the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains Monday
night into Tuesday morning, sending a cold front into the northern
Big Country late Tuesday afternoon. A fairly unstable environment
will reside ahead of the front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible along the front, if the cap is breached. There is still
some uncertainty if convection will develop along the front, but if
storms do form, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible,
mainly along and north of I-20. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 80s.
On Wednesday, the remnant boundary will remain across our
northern counties. Although an isolated thunderstorm is possible
in the vicinity of this boundary, confidence is too low to include
in the current forecast. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to
upper 80s for most locations.

The next upper level trough will approach the area from the west
late Thursday, eventually tracking across the Texas Panhandle
Thursday night. The dryline is forecast to sharpen to our west by
late Thursday afternoon, with the potential for showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the dryline. The better dynamics
will be across our northern counties, closer to the track of the
aforementioned upper level trough. This is the region that SPC
has highlighted in a 15 percent area for severe weather potential
on Thursday. Although a few strong to severe storms are also
possible farther south, at this point the higher potential looks
to be across the Big Country. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid
80s. The next upper level trough will then deepen across the
western CONUS on Friday and approach the forecast area this
weekend. There continue to be differences in the timing and track
of this feature, but an unsettled pattern is possible next weekend
into the start of next week. For now, PoPs were kept in the
slight chance to chance category. Highs Friday into the weekend
will be above seasonal normals, in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR cigs between 5k and 10k feet continue across West Central
Texas terminals late this morning. Models suggest this should lift
and dissipate through the afternoon, but some sort of mid or high
clouds will persist through the period. Northeast winds, gusty at
times this afternoon, will decrease overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     42  72  53  85 /   0   0   0  10
San Angelo  43  75  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    44  76  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   42  71  51  82 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  43  73  54  87 /   0   0   0  20
Ozona       45  72  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       44  72  54  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...07