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000
FXUS62 KTBW 120813
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
413 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

The upper-level pattern has flattened significantly with much of the
energy that propagated across our region yesterday now being
absorbed into an upper-level low across the Great Lakes Region. The
associated frontal boundary has now made its way over the FL Keys
and FL Straights, continuing the slow progression southward and a
WNW flow begins to advect a much drier and somewhat cooler airmass
into the region. The gradient remains strong, however, with
periodic gusts into the 20 to 25 knot range across land areas
overnight. This has helped to keep the air mixed, leading to not a
very dramatic decrease in temperatures for much of the region.
Most areas are still in the upper 60s to low 70s as of 4AM.

Gradually, upper-level ridging is forecast to build eastward as
surface high pressure remains in control. With a northerly component
for days, a continental airmass will be in place with lower
dewpoints and stable conditions. Through the weekend, the weather
should be quite nice with this setup.

By early next week, though, an increasing easterly flow will allow
warmer air to return. However, until a more southerly component
develops, the moisture will be slow to recover across the region.
This means that while the afternoons will be warm, the evenings
should still feel comfortable.

With such a slow moisture rebound and a generally stable airmass
expected to be in place, the weather is extremely quiet. There is no
rain in the forecast for the next seven days and really no major
weather hazards on the horizon. Marine hazards linger today and
tomorrow, but gradually improve this weekend. Will also have to
monitor conditions day-to-day for fire weather concerns as soils
begin to dry out. Overall, though, the forecast can be largely
summed up with one word: quiet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

No major aviation concerns for the next several days. Only point of
note is that gusty winds will prevail at times through the day
today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Dangerous seas remain especially offshore as a westerly swell
continues bringing 7 to 10 foot seas towards the coast. The Small
Craft Advisory has been extended through the day with such rough
seas persisting. This also means large, breaking waves are expected
at area beaches. Gradual improvement is anticipated through the
weekend and into next week, but many boaters in small craft will
find that conditions do not improve enough to get out of local
bays/harbors until Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Elevated fire weather concerns exist today as a dry airmass favors
RH values dropping below 35% and breezy conditions continue. Despite
this, rainfall yesterday means that wetter conditions exist,
limiting dry fuels available today. As such, widespread red flag
conditions are not expected. Nevertheless, some control issues may
exist with gustier winds. Similarly dry conditions will persist for
the entire period; but lighter winds are forecast for the weekend
and early next week. Nevertheless, will have to monitor conditions
each day, especially as the region dries out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  59  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  82  58  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  80  54  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  60  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  76  50  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  76  64  78  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Flannery