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000
FXUS63 KTOP 160756
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
256 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to Severe storms will be possible through the mid
  morning hours. The primary hazards will be damaging wind
  gusts, large hail and perhaps a few tornadoes.

- Wind Advisory in effect from the mid morning hours through 7
  PM.

- Below average temperatures expected by the end of the week.
  Overnight lows may drop into the lower to mid 30s Saturday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An amplified upper level low was moving northeast across western KS
with a 95 KT H5 jet max rounding the upper low across central and
eastern KS. The dryline/Pacific front was located across central KS
and thunderstorms were developing along the front. So far the only
surface based QLCS is moving northeast into south central NE but
trailing convection along the front may intensify as it moves into
an environment with 1500-2000 J/KG of MUCAPE and strong effective
shear. The low-level shear and forecast hodographs are curved and if
any of the storms become surface based then the scattered storms
moving northeast towards the southern counties of the CWA may become
supercellular. But there is still a lot of uncertainty if any
discrete storms will become surface based for potential tornadic
supercells. At this time the line segments with QLCS features have
produced a few meso vortices on the north side of the rear
inflow jet. I`m leaning more towards line segments of convection
that may become surface based at times and produce damaging
wind and perhaps a few meso vortex tornadoes. If storms become
more discrete and become supercells, then large hail, damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible.

The upper low will lift northeast into eastern NE and the
dryline/Pacific front will shift east of the CWA during the mid
morning hours bringing an end to any severe thunderstorms.

during the mid morning hours the southwest winds will increase to 25
to 35 MPH with some gusts to 45 MPH and will continue through the
morning but will diminish near sunset. A few strong thunderstorms
may develop across the northern counties of the CWA. These storms
will be higher based pulse type storms, that could produce
stronger wind gusts.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as an upper trough digs southeast across
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Strong low-level CAA
will cause a cold front to move southeast across the area late
Wednesday night into thursday, which could cause a chance for
showers and thunderstorms.

This upper trough will amplify across the northeast US and
cause a broad surface ridge of high pressure to build southward
across the Plains Friday into Saturday. Highs on Saturday will
only reach into the 50s. We may see a freeze and/or frost
Saturday night with lows in the lower 30s across the western and
northern counties and mid 30s across the remainder of the area.

A broad upper ridge will shift east into the Plains by the middle
and end of next week, causing high temperatures to warm back into
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A line of showers and storms may move across the terminals after
9Z and last for an hour or two. There may be some gusty winds if
a line of storms develops. There may be some light showers
between 13Z and 15Z. MVFR ceilings will drop to around 1300 feet
through the early morning hours. Once the front moves through
after 14Z, the clouds will clear. Southwest to west winds will
increase through the morning and increase to 18 to 24 KTS with
some gusts up to 35 KTS during the late morning and early
afternoon hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-
KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-
KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Gargan