Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
000
FXUS64 KTSA 221140
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
640 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Cold start this morning with temperatures in the mid 30s across
portions of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. A
frost advisory remains in effect for northwest Arkansas until 8
this morning.
Gusty southwest winds will develop today as surface high shifts
east with tightening pressure gradient. Limited moisture return
initially will create at least limited fire weather concerns with
any remaining dormant grasses, mainly across Osage county. Afternoon
RH values are expected to fall into the 30-35 percent range in
this area, but will likely remain above critical levels.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Warming trend will continue on Tuesday ahead of next cold front,
which is forecast to move into the region Tuesday afternoon/eve.
A few showers will be possible along boundary across NE OK/NW AR,
including a few scattered thunderstorms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as boundary stalls near the I-40 corridor.
An active spring weather pattern is expected late week through
the weekend with several rounds of showers/thunderstorms likely,
including severe weather.
Low level moisture will continue to lift north Wednesday into
Wednesday night with elevated showers/thunderstorms likely developing
across eastern Oklahoma in convergent zone of low level jet axis.
A few of these storms could be strong to marginally severe late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning with hail the primary
threat.
Strong upper low is progged to lift northeast into the central
Plains on Friday with widespread showers/thunderstorms likely
during the day. Instability/shear profiles suggest the likelihood
for severe weather, however the timing and evolution will need to
be better resolved to determine if a more significant/widespread
severe weather event is likely. Specific threats will continue to
be refined over the next several days as additional data becomes
available.
Another vigorous upper low will move out of the desert Southwest
over the weekend with the potential for another round of severe
weather/heavier rainfall. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024
Mostly clear skies over the CWA remain common through the
majority of the TAF period. High clouds begin to increase late in
the period for Northeast Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas as a
cold front approaches. Winds through the period return out of the
south and become breezy/gusty this afternoon. Southerly winds
weaken some tonight...though remain gusty aloft. Thus...will
continue low level wind shear for all TAF locations tonight. The
exception to the southerly winds tonight will be KFSM where more
easterly winds return. VFR conditions should persist through the
TAF period.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 71 54 79 53 / 0 0 10 20
FSM 71 49 79 57 / 0 0 10 20
MLC 70 53 78 59 / 0 0 10 30
BVO 72 51 77 48 / 0 0 10 10
FYV 69 49 77 51 / 0 0 10 20
BYV 69 51 76 50 / 0 0 20 20
MKO 69 52 77 56 / 0 0 10 20
MIO 69 52 74 49 / 0 0 20 10
F10 69 53 78 56 / 0 0 10 30
HHW 67 49 74 59 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
011.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20