Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
600
FXUS61 KCLE 131946
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019


.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push east across the southern Great
Lakes tonight into Monday. High pressure will build east across
the area Monday through Tuesday. Strong low pressure will move
east across the Great Lakes Tuesday night through Wednesday,
forcing a cold front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level and surface low pressure system was near the
upper Great Lakes region this afternoon. This system is slowly
moving eastward through southern Canada. Gusty southwest winds
this afternoon in response to the surface low north of the
region will relax a little bit as the Sun goes down. There will
be a gradual increase in high and mid cloudiness moving in from
the west and northwest tonight and on Monday. A moisture
starved cold front will move across the area tonight with a wind
shift to the west. This front will be a dry frontal passage.

Temperatures at 850 mb will be dropping to 0C to 4C by Monday
morning. Monday will be a very cool, breezy, and cloudy day. A
band of lake effect rain showers will like develop during the
morning and impact areas in the primary Snowbelt region. Weak
high pressure will move in over the area Monday night with
clearing skies and temperatures falling back down in the 30s
away from the lake. Areas of frost look possible and some of the
colder valley areas could even see a light freeze Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins with an upper level trough deepening into
a strong closed closed as it approaches from the upper Midwest.
As a result, a surface low develops over eastern Minnesota on
Tuesday. Meanwhile, the surface high pressure that has been
influencing the local weather will move off to the east, though
strong southerly warm advection will increase high temperatures
into the upper 60s for most areas on Tuesday, with mostly sunny
to partly cloudy skies. The surface low will deepen as it moves
east across lower Michigan and into southern Ontario by
Wednesday morning, forcing a cold front east across the area as
well. There won`t be a ton of moisture, but there will be enough
with the cold front and upper level forcing to produce
widespread showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Northwesterly flow begins on Wednesday evening after the cold
front passes to the east and the upper level low passes to our
northeast. Cold temperatures aloft, moisture from the upper
level low, and unidirectional flow will make it very likely that
lake effect precipitation occurs over Northeast Ohio and
Northwest Pennsylvania. MUCAPE of up to 500 J/kg will be
present, introducing the possibility for thunder on Wednesday
evening into the overnight hours. Low temperatures Wednesday
night will be in the low 40s, so precipitation type should be
all rain. Don`t worry, we aren`t expecting snow...yet.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect showers will persist through Thursday morning
before slowly diminishing throughout the day as the upper level
low moves off to the east and warm, dry air moves in from the
west over the lake. Surface high pressure and upper level ridge
moves east across the region on Friday, creating relatively
quiet conditions. An upper level trough moves through on Friday
night into Saturday, introducing a chance of showers across the
area on Saturday. The pattern becomes more amplifies on Sunday
with a deep trough building over the plains and upper level
ridging over the eastern CONUS. This means above average
temperatures expected, with upper 60s and lower 70s currently in
the forecast for Sunday afternoon.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will be expected through the next 24 to 30 hours
for all TAF sites. Southwesterly winds will be gusty this
afternoon up to 25 knots but the gust will diminish around
sunset this evening. Southwest winds will continue 8 to 12 knots
tonight and tomorrow. Some high and mid level cloudiness to to
start to move late tonight and on Monday but not impactful.

.OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in lake-effect rain showers at/near
KERI Sunday night into Monday morning. Non-VFR also possible
with showers for all TAF sites on Tuesday and Wednesday. Non-VFR
could linger into Thursday for KERI with lake effect showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory will continue through 10pm Monday. Southerly
offshore winds of 15 to 25 knots will continue through the day today
before turning to westerly winds by late tonight. The westerly winds
will be enough to produce waves of 3 to 5 feet through Monday
evening. Winds will diminish Monday night as high pressure
approaches and reduce the pressure gradient. Low pressure develops
over the upper Midwest on Tuesday and deepens to at least 1000mb as
it tracks east to southern Ontario by 12Z Wednesday. This will
introduce southerly winds of around 15 knots on Tuesday night. The
cold front associated with this deepening low will track east across
the lake bringing with it strong westerly winds. West to northwest
winds with be around 15 to 25 knots in the nearshore zones and up to
30+ knots in the open waters from Wednesday through Thursday
morning. Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed through this
period with gales possible over the open waters if the low deepens
enough. The GFS the low deepening to as low as 988mb, which may be
sufficient for gales over the lake. Winds slowly diminish after this
as the low moves off to the east on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Monday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Saunders



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.