Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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822 FXUS63 KDVN 091756 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1256 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few thunderstorms continue today. - Strong gusty winds in storms Friday evening. - Warm next week with increasing chances for storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Today and tonight: Elongated trough from the central Rockies to the Great Lakes will provide forcing/lift, and with sufficient moisture will continue to spark showers and a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected as shear is weak and instability is minimal. Locally heavy rainfall is expected due to a slow movement of the storms. Extensive low clouds will keep temperatures much cooler with highs in the 60 to 65 range. Gradually the showers end tonight as the trough shifts to our southeast. Lows tonight will be in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Friday: Could be an interesting day as a dynamic short wave sweeps southward out of western Ontario into northern IL. This carves out a deep trough in the Great Lakes region. Strong forcing from this short wave should arrive in the late afternoon and evening in our forecast area. Despite weak instability and limited low level moisture, CAM`s models indicate a band of fast-moving showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms sweeping across the area during the late afternoon into the evening, as low-level lapse rates steepen with afternoon heating. Forecast soundings show a classic Inverted-V sounding which is favorable for strong downdrafts and gusty winds (isolated microbursts perhaps?). SPC has the entire cwa in General Thunder for now but can`t rule out isolated severe wind gusts. Highs will be around 70. Saturday: A very pleasant day is in store weak high pressure building into the area. Highs will be around 70. Sunday through Wednesday: Active period again with periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms as another deep trough comes out of the Rockies and into the middle of the country. However, way too early to determine severe threats or rainfall amounts. Highs will be well into the 70s to around 80. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the area this moring and are slowly sinking southward across eastern Iowa. There are MVFR to periods of IFR conditions with these showers. They are expected to move into KBRL by 20 to 21 UTC this afternoon. Expecting these showers to continue into the early evening before coming to an end from north to south between and 00 and 06 UTC. Winds will become light and variable tonight but in general during the day winds will be northerly at 10 to 20 mph. Conditions will improve to VFR after 06 UTC. There is a chance for 3 to 5 mile fog to develop across the area from 09 to 14 UTC but confidence is low in this occurring at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 River flood watches have been issued for small parts of the Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers. Rainfall expected tonight into Thursday will cause the Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers to rise over the next week. However, there is uncertainty regarding the amount of forecasted rainfall. If the rainfall is less than expected, rises will still occur on these rivers but they could remain below flood stage. If, on the other hand, rainfall is heavier than forecast, more locations along Cedar, Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers could go into flood. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Cousins HYDROLOGY...8