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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
000 FXZS60 NSTU 120134 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 234 PM SST Thu Apr 11 2024 .Short term... Satellite imagery throughout the morning and early afternoon hours showing a trough to the north and east. Skies cleared throughout the day today over American Samoa as a ridge from the southwest remained dominant. However, the ridge will weaken and the aforementioned trough will move closer to the region on Friday and this weekend. American Samoa will be on the edge of the aforementioned trough during this time, which bring uncertainties in the rainfall forecast. However, confidence is high in the wind forecast as the interaction of the trough and the ridge will be high to increase east/southeasterly winds up to around 20 mph this weekend. Even through the breeze is forecast to increase, wind speeds will remain below the Wind Advisory threshold. The risk showers will increase on Friday to numerous showers (70% chance) with passing showers decreasing to scattered (50% chance) on Saturday and Sunday. If rain occurs, flash flooding is not likely throughout this time. If the trough remains to the north, the risk of showers will decrease and more sun than clouds are expected throughout the day. More sun would bring temperatures above average. .Long term... A trough is expected to move through on Sunday night/Monday morning across the territory. Showers are likely during this time. A ridge to the southeast will likely bring drier air into the territory from Monday through late in the week, which will reduce the risk of rainfall to around a 30% chance. If rainfall occurs, it will be in the passing form. Winds will reduce slightly to a easterly 10 to 15 mph breeze. Severe weather is not expected during this time. && .Marine... As winds are expected to increase Friday and up to a fresh east/southeasterly breeze this weekend, choppy/rough seas with waves reaching up to 9 feet are expected with sets reaching up to 10 feet at times. Even though peak periods are expected to be reaching up to around 11 seconds, surf will likely be within the High Surf Advisory criteria. The highest surf will be along the eastern and southern coastlines of all islands of American Samoa. Winds are expected to slowly decrease throughout the beginning of the week. This will cause wind driven seas to slowly ease and may be below the Small Craft Advisory criteria by Tuesday as there are also no significant swell forecast to move through the area. We will continue to monitor this time frame for any potential changes as this is a critical time period with Flag Day festivities including the fishing tournament and the fautasi race. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ LaPlante
