Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 291112
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
712 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds will become gusty today as high pressure slowly builds in
from the deep south. Northwesterly flow will allow weak
disturbances to pass through this weekend and into early next
week, so expect the unsettled pattern to continue. Temperatures
will warm well above normal for Easter weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Friday...

Latest sfc analysis shows yesterday`s cold front already well
offshore. Low pressure that formed along the front is now tracking
NE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, a large area of
strong high pressure located over the Gulf Coast is building toward
the local area. Aloft, NW flow is in place as the trough axis pushes
offshore. Skies have cleared out and temps have dropped as low as
the mid 30s in a few rural locations. Otherwise, temps are in the
upper 30s-low 40s. Lows this morning are expected to reach the mid-
upper 30s across the FA.

The pressure gradient between the departing low pressure and the
high pressure building in will allow for gusty conditions. WNW winds
will be ~15mph today with gusts of 20-30mph. Skies will start out
sunny this morning, then scattered cloud cover builds in as weak
shortwave energy and moisture aloft travel through the region. Temps
will be seasonably mild with highs in the mid 60s in the piedmont
and around 60/low 60s in the east. Winds diminish tonight as the
high builds in further and the pressure gradient slackens. Winds
will become southwesterly overnight and high clouds will build in
from the west. Thus, temps will not be quite as cold with lows in
the mid 40s S of I-64 and upper 30s-low 40s N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

The southern surface high will slide off the southeast coast for
Saturday, with NW flow aloft continuing behind the departing
east coast trough. This will allow for numerous disturbances to
cross into the region from the Ohio Valley, resulting in periods
of increasing clouds and eventually some scattered showers by
late in the Easter weekend. 00z models continue to keep Saturday
almost completely dry. Extreme northern portions of the FA
could see a shower or two Saturday afternoon. PoPs in these
spots are <20%. There will, however, still be increased cloud
cover. Expecting mostly cloudy skies N of I-64 and partly cloudy
skies to the S. Mild again on Saturday with highs in the low
70s W of the Ches Bay and low-mid 60s on the Eastern Shore.

Northwesterly flow persists to begin Easter Sunday, ahead of slight
ridging building into the MS River Valley area. However, the next
disturbance/moisture riding along the northern periphery of the
upper ridge crosses into the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-
Atlantic on Sunday. Models are consistent with showing some rain
making it into our CWA late in the day Sunday into Monday, as a weak
backdoor front drops across the area. There is a SChc for showers
Sunday afternoon, increasing to a Chc PoP across the northern half
of the FA late in the evening. There is some uncertainty regarding
temperatures still, since this will depend on how far the front
drops. Current forecast has highs in the mid-upper 70s S of I-64 and
upper 60s-mid 70s N of I-64 and on the Eastern Shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Friday...

The low amplitude ridge aloft translates over the southeast coast,
its axis crossing into the local area Monday night. Meanwhile at the
sfc, large high pressure pushes off to sea to the southeast as
strong low pressure approaches the Ohio valley/Great Lakes Monday
into Tuesday. The presence of a warm front in the Mid-Atlantic leads
to some uncertainty in temperatures and precip. South of the front,
temps will approach 80 on Mon/Tues with temps 10-20F degrees cooler
on the N side. Current forecast has the front setting up roughly
along the I-64 corridor Mon, then pressing slightly N for Tues.
Overnight lows for Mon and Tues night will be in the 50s. Highest
chance for showers will be along and N of the front. Keeping PoPs
mostly below 55%, except along the far northern fringes Monday night
and Tues where PoPs are 55-65%. Sfc low pressure presses into the
Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front along
behind it. Global models do have some slight disagreements on the
strength/orientation of the trough aloft supporting it, but looks to
be decently strong regardless. A line of showers will cross the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Also, introduced a
slight chance of thunder given the LREF mean CAPE has 300-400 J/KG.
Strong high pressure builds in front the W behind the front and a
strong ridge sets up over the central CONUS, leading to dry
conditions for Wednesday afternoon through the end of the week.
Highs on Wed will range through the 60s, then cooler on Thurs with
highs in the upper 50s. Returning to colder overnight temps for
Wed/Thurs night with lows in the upper 30s-low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Friday...

VFR prevails through the 12z/29 TAF period. SCT to occasionally
BKN mid to high clouds are expected through the day today that
will clear out this evening. Westerly winds increase today,
becoming gusty for the late morning and early afternoon period.
Winds then diminish to light or calm overnight.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions are expected through the
weekend, though with increased cloud cover. A warm front sets up
across northern portions of the FA late in the weekend and into
early next week, bringing the potential for showers and
occasional flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 700 AM EDT Friday...

Headline Changes this cycle: Small Craft Advisories ended for
the rivers/sound but will go back into effect this aftn.
Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into this
aftn or early evening.

Sfc low pressure is now well off the mid-Atlantic coast and
rapidly pushing NE away from the region, with high pressure
centered along the Gulf coast. NW winds have been gusting to
25-30kt early this morning, and should stay in this range for a
few more hrs before diminishing later in the morning. As noted,
will have SCAs all areas to start and will then see a period of
lower winds for much of the rest of the day. Seas are generally
4-6 ft and will slowly subside later today into tonight. The
main concern for winds this aftn will be over the rivers with
deeper mixing over land areas with a very dry airmass potentially
spreading across the rivers with frequent gusts to around 25kt.
Have issued a new round of SCAs to start in the aftn for these
areas.

High pressure builds into the region Saturday, with sub- SCA
conditions and SW winds. A front drops southward and stalls
into early next week, likely shifting the winds to the NE across
much of the area later Sunday into Monday, but winds/waves/seas
are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. A strong cold front
is expected by the mid to late portion of the week, with NW
winds and at least SCA conditions likely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

Flood Warning now in effect for Meherrin River at
Lawrenceville. With lighter rainfall amounts over the
headwaters, forecasts have accordingly come down a bit with this
latest model cycle. That said, we continue to monitor river
levels, with greatest concern for Meherrin River at Emporia,
Blackwater near Franklin, and locations along the Nottoway River
(mainly at Sebrell by this weekend). Northern forecast points
briefly bump into action stage tonight into Friday along the
Appomattox River from Farmville to Matoaca. See water.noaa.gov
for site-specific details.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     ANZ630>632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ633-635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM/MAM
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...LKB/RHR
HYDROLOGY...AKQ


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