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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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000 FXUS64 KFWD 192352 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 652 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Relatively cool and cloudy conditions prevail across much of North and Central Texas this evening with light northerly winds and temperatures in the 60s. Winds above the surface are from the southeast as the cool frontal layer extends up to about 850 mb. Later tonight, strengthening east-southeast winds above the surface will lead to increasing warm moist advection and the development of widespread showers. This activity should start to increase in coverage well after midnight when strong isentropic ascent becomes maximized along and north of the I-20 corridor. Steep mid level lapse rates will initially support some elevated thunderstorms with a sub-severe hail threat, but this activity will wane through the late morning hours as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist. Locally heavy rainfall may result in some minor flooding issues, especially in urban areas. Later Saturday morning into the afternoon, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the region aided by weak ascent from a passing disturbance. While most of the activity will pose nothing more than a lightning/heavy rain threat, there will be a small portion of our southern counties that may get into a better warm sector through the afternoon. There could be a few stronger storms south of a Waco to Palestine line during this time. In addition, rainfall rates may become most efficient in this area where PW`s approach 1.8" through the afternoon. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with a few locations (~10%) receiving 4+" of rain through Saturday night. All of this activity will move east late Saturday night with rainfall tapering off from west to east and another cool night expected. Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s for early Sunday morning. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/ /Sunday Through Next Friday/ The weather across North Central Texas will trend a lot more favorable on Sunday as precipitation clears to the east, mainly before daybreak. Clearing from north to south will lag the precipitation clearing by several hours, but we do have confidence that skies will range from mostly clear in the north to partly cloudy in the south by early to mid afternoon. North winds will be a bit breezy, but the previous rain should forgo much wildfire concern. Highs will generally only range from 60 to 65 degrees, which is at least 10 degrees below average for the date. The theme of cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday night into Monday with lows at daybreak Monday mainly in the 40s with highs Monday afternoon mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. Temperatures will trend back to average on Monday night into Tuesday as surface high pressure quickly exits to the east and southerly low level flow commences. The warming trend will continue through the midweek with lows in the mid 60s and highs at least around 80 degrees by Wednesday night into Thursday. Current long range blended model guidance suggests this warming trend will continue into at least Friday. A weak disturbance passing well to the north may get some isolated to widely scattered showers (cannot rule out a few thunderstorms) going in the warm air advection regime starting Tuesday night and going through Thursday. Obviously clouds will be increasing over this time range as well. NWP guidance still is lacking a strong consensus in specifics of what will transpire across the forecast area starting Thursday and going into the weekend as a parade of disturbances push east from the Western CONUS starting toward the middle of next week. The loose consensus is that one of these disturbances will significantly brush north Texas by Friday, although it is possible tangible impacts could begin a day earlier (and also last well into the weekend). Needless to say, some severe weather and/or heavy rain threat could manifest by the end of next week, although any further details than this will likely have to wait for better NWP consensus to be reached. SHV / 50 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Conditions will continue to deteriorate through the late evening hours with MVFR cigs spreading north across the region at this hour. These will continue to lower to IFR later tonight with the development of showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely by early Saturday morning. Widespread rainfall/thunderstorms are expected for much of Saturday along with IFR conditions. This activity should begin to move east of the D10 airspace by late Saturday evening. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 56 59 49 64 49 / 90 100 80 5 0 Waco 59 64 49 62 47 / 60 90 90 5 0 Paris 51 56 47 63 44 / 90 90 80 10 0 Denton 52 58 46 62 45 / 90 100 80 5 0 McKinney 54 57 48 63 45 / 90 100 90 5 0 Dallas 56 60 49 64 48 / 90 100 90 5 0 Terrell 54 59 48 62 45 / 90 100 90 10 0 Corsicana 59 63 51 64 47 / 70 90 90 5 0 Temple 60 66 49 62 47 / 40 90 90 5 0 Mineral Wells 54 59 46 62 45 / 90 90 80 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$
