952
FXUS64 KHGX 222045
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

While there has been a fair amount of activity on radar today, not
much if any, has been reaching the ground. A strong persistent cap
has helped to keep things quiet, but models are still indicating a
chance of showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon into the even-
ing hours as a weak front moves in from the north and the dry line
approaches from the west. The activity is progged to hold together
as it moves from Central TX into our northern CWA this evening. We
are still looking at a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms if
this development holds together. There have been no changes to SPC
and WPC outlooks for today...with the northern third of the CWA in
a Marginal to Slight Risk of severe weather (levels 1 and 2 out of
5) and a mostly Marginal Risk for excessive rain for our northern-
most counties (Madison, Trinity, Houston). Damaging winds and hail
will be the primary severe weather threats. Brief heavy rain could
produce amounts from 1-3 inches in a short period, which will then
cause issues in low-lying areas as well as localized street flood-
ing. Some of the guidance is suggesting that these storms might be
tracking as far south as Houston proper before the cap/loss of day
time heating wins out.

Outside of this, the forecast for SE TX will be generally warm and
muggy as onshore winds persist. Highs will tomorrow will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid and upper 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

A strong mid/upper ridge of high pressure centered over Mexico
will remain a dominant force in the Texas atmosphere, keeping
conditions quite hot through at least early next week. Friday is
expected to be a humid day with inland afternoon temperatures
around 90 degrees. Heat index values are likely to be about 10
degrees hotter than the actual temperatures. A stout cap is
expected to keep PoPs low despite the presence of mid/upper
disturbances and high PWATs. However, the GFS insists that there
will be a more aggressive UL disturbance that will throw strong
PVA and its resulting thunderstorm activity into our northern
counties. For now, we have opted for slight (~20%) PoPs across our
Brazos Valley counties for Friday evening/night.

Over the weekend, a mid/upper trough over W CONUS will induce LL
cyclogenesis over the central plains. This will veer the low to
mid level (850-700mb) flow to the SW, enhancing WAA aloft. These
hotter temperatures will "mix" to the surface, allowing for
daytime highs to become progressively hotter this weekend into
Monday. By Sunday and Monday, most inland areas could be in the
mid 90s. Our temperature grids even show a few pockets of upper
90s. Considering the continued high humidity, current projected
heat index values would warrant Heat Advisories for the Sunday-
Monday time frame. Experimental HeatRisk guidance suggests the
heat poses a Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) risk
to health. If you plan to spend time outdoors during the holiday
weekend, please practice heat safety such as drinking plentiful
water, wearing light colored clothing, and taking breaks
(preferably indoors in the AC) if working/playing outside. It is
important to remember that drinking alcohol can result in
dehydration. So be careful at those outdoor Memorial Day
festivities! Also, NEVER forget to LOOK before you LOCK your
vehicle. NEVER leave children and pets in a hot car. There will
also be an enhanced rip current risk at the beaches.

Some relief in the heat may arrive after Memorial Day due to an
approaching cold front. The front may bring showers and
thunderstorms to the area late Monday and Tuesday. For now, we
only depict slight PoPs associated with the front. The early
outlook for the post-front environment on Tuesday-Wednesday
features lower dew points (in the 60s instead of 70s) and high
temperatures in the low 90s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Ceilings have been improving and we should see mostly VFR conditions
across the CWA this afternoon into the early evening hours. Isolated
to widely scattered showers have been moving across the region since
this morning (despite the strong cap in place), but not too sure how
much is actually reaching the ground. However, near term guidance is
continuing to indicate that we`ll see a round of stronger more organ-
ized activity approach and move across the area (mainly the northern
to central CWA) starting late this afternon into evening. Have added
a TEMPO group for our two most northern terminals (CLL/UTS) with the
mention of VCSH to CXO. This may need to be extended south to IAH if
model trends continue to push things south. Otherwise...look for the
return of MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight...with improving conditions by
mid to late morning tomorrow. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Generally moderate southeasterly winds and 3-5 foot seas are
expected through the weekend. However, occasionally higher winds
and seas are likely. Therefore, caution flags have been issued
through Thursday and may need to be extended. We cannot rule out
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria at times. Winds are seas
are projected to decrease somewhat by early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Minor to major river flooding continues for parts of Southeast
Texas, particularly along portions of the Trinity and Brazos rivers.
The following river points are either currently in flood stage
(as of ~3AM Wednesday morning):

MAJOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Liberty): Major

MODERATE//
----------
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Moderate

MINOR//
-------
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Minor
- Brazos River (Richmond): Minor
- Brazos River (Rosharon): Minor
- Brazos River (Sugar Land): Minor

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS
website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as
the river flooding continues.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  92  77  93 /  50  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  79  92  78  93 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  79  85 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday evening for
     GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Self