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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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000 FXUS63 KJKL 161804 AAB AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 204 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for showers and a few storms are in the forecast today through Wednesday night, and also through next weekend. Chances peak Wednesday and Wednesday night when the strongest storms are possible. - Well above normal temperatures will be in place over the area through Thursday, with readings peaking in the upper 70s to low 80s each day, or about 10 degrees above normal. Cooler weather follows for the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 204 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2024 Interesting set up this afternoon. Band of light precipitation is moving eastward across eastern Kentucky, gradually dissipating as it tracks eastward. Some type of residual surface boundary (convective?) is lifting north-northeast across portions of the area, but mainly across VA/WV, brushing far eastern portions of our forecast area. This boundary is kicking off showers and thunderstorms across the area and will likely continue to do so over our eastern most zones. Made adjustments to PoPs for this and also tweaked hourly temps to try and capture the band of clouds and light precip moving across the area. No major changes to the forecast other than the increase in PoPs for this afternoon, especially across our east. Will update the zones one last time for these most recent trends, impacting mainly our east. UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024 Just a quick update to the forecast to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These small adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 520 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024 08Z sfc analysis shows a wavy west to east front has dropped midway through eastern Kentucky connected back to a developing area of low pressure over the Central Plains. This boundary spawned a few storms last evening and even now has a cluster going to the east of the state. It has also kept skies mostly cloudy and wind stirred enough to limit much of a ridge to valley temperature split. Specifically, readings are generally in the mid to upper 60s on the hills while some mid to upper 50s are found in a few of the sheltered spots. Meanwhile, amid light southerly winds, dewpoints have come up into the mid and upper 50s across the board - providing some of the fuel for the earlier storms. Despite the higher dewpoints, the clouds and light winds have been enough to keep any fog to a minimum. The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be in broad agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict the approach of a closed trough low from the Plains with downstream ridging over Kentucky through most of the day. The mid level flow transitions to southwesterly this morning as a lead impulse passes through. Additional impulses arrive tonight with height falls at 5h commencing as the trough brushes by to the northwest and then to the north on Wednesday. The core of the energy with this low does pass on Wednesday afternoon affecting the northern portion of the JKL CWA. By evening, the mid level flow will be flattening with a lull in any weak short waves moving overhead. Given the persistent small model spread, the NBM was used as the starting point for the grids along the addition of CAMs guidance for the PoPs through Wednesday. Sensible weather features another warm couple of days, though temperatures will likely be mitigated on Wednesday on account of a increased clouds and a couple of rounds of convection. For today, the boundary returns north with rising heights aloft working to limit convection and even its initialization. The latest CAMs suggests that some early showers today will hinder the ability of the area to destabilize for better storm development this afternoon. Similarly, the approach of the sfc low`s occluded front tonight would also allow for showers and a stray thunderstorm around, but with timing that would harm the potential for storms later Wednesday even as we reach peak heating. For this reason, it seems, SPC has pulled the slight risk area back to the northwest of the JKL CWA and closer to the center of the low both at the sfc and aloft. The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were generally related to the consensus CAMs ideas for PoPs and timing today through Wednesday. Only made some minor adjustments to temperatures based on terrain tonight on account of the increased cloud cover and pcpn timing. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 500 AM EDT TUE APR 16 2024 Active weather still on tap for the extended, as a series of low pressure troughs move across the CONUS mid-week. The large scale upper pattern will feature a large trough moving away from northern New England and southeastern Canada, and out to sea in the north Atlantic. With the GFS Ensemble seemingly having trouble resolving all of the expected low pressure systems, decided to use a blend of the NBM, GFS, and ECMWF model data to fashion a forecast solution for days 3 through 7. Behind this system, we will see two more vigorous troughs moving through the Great Lakes and across southern Canada. The lead trough in this pairing will be our weather maker to begin the extended. We will see numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms moving through eastern Kentucky Wednesday night, as a cold front moves through the region. Once the front has moved by early Thursday morning, drier air will filter into the area, and will bring mostly clear skies and continued warm temperatures to eastern Kentucky. Behind this system, northern stream and southern stream energy will phase to form a potent shortwave trough over the central Plains on Thursday. This system will move quite quickly in our direction, and will bring another shot of showers and storm to us Thursday afternoon through the day on Friday. A frontal boundary will extend southward from the southern Canada trough and will link up with a wave of low pressure that is forecast to form along the southern reaches of the boundary. This boundary will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms across our area to finish out the week. The previously mentioned surface front is forecast to slow down and become elongated west to east across our area Friday night through Saturday, and will continue to fire scattered showers and storms around eastern Kentucky as it lingers over the area. The front should finally drift southward Sunday and Sunday night, and finally be out of the area by Monday afternoon. As the front and its parent trough move through the area late Friday, winds will shift from southern to west and then northwest, which will allow much cooler air to spill into the area for a few days. In face, high temperatures Friday through Monday should be quite a bit below normal, with daily maxes topping out in the upper 50s to mid 60s over the weekend. Winds will increase and become gusty at times during the passage of the end of week weather system. Any weather concerns in the extended will likely occur Wednesday, as the initial weather system and cold front move through the area. We will be on the look out for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall Wednesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There will be a small chance for a shower or storm through the area this afternoon and against late tonight or early Wednesday morning. Winds will be southerly in nature, generally around 10 kts or less with occasional higher gusts, particularly this afternoon and then again tomorrow. Some LLWS will be possible late tonight from the south to southwest at about 40 kts as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...RAY
