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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260550
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
150 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore today. A warm front attached to
low pressure over the Great Lakes moves by Saturday. Highs
pressure returns for Sunday and into next week. Another low and
front arrives for Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure is centered over northern New England and
southern Quebec early this morning, with a light pressure
gradient over our region. Dew points dropped notably yesterday,
so with dry air, light winds and clear skies, it looks as though
radiational cooling should be excellent through dawn. Will watch
obs closely to see if freeze/frost headlines need to be
cancelled anywhere, but doesn`t currently look like we`ll need
headline expansion anywhere given temps are running near to
slightly above expectations.
Otherwise, looks like a dry and mostly sunny day as the high
very slowly drifts eastward through the day. The sun should
allow rapid warming but the light southeastelry to easterly
flow on the south side of the high will limit the climb in temps
especially close to the ocean. Overall expect highs in the 60s
inland to 50s near the coast.
Tonight should stay mostly clear, but the easterly flow likely
moistens up the low levels just enough that, when combined with
some approaching high clouds ahead of a warm front and the
warmer start plus warm advection aloft, should limit the drop.
Might need some frost headlines but think another widespread
freeze is off the table... possibly for the rest of the season?
We`ll see, but either way, milder than tonight. Lows mostly 30s
to low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A transition to early summer readings Saturday and Sunday. An
upper ridge will build across the area thru the period and as
this happens, low pressure moves by to the north, bringing a
warm front thru on Saturday. There will be plenty of clouds
around, but chances for rain are low Saturday (slight chance)
and only chance levels for Sat night. The most favored areas for
the showers are the Southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley and north
NJ.
Mild and dry weather will be around for Sunday. Following the
warm front, a deep southerly flow will arrive over the area, so
increasing warmth and humidity is expected. Highs Sunday will be
in the upper 70s/low 80s in most spots, but cooler near the
shore and up across the Poconos.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are not many changes for the long term with todays
forecast. Very warm temperatures for late spring will remain in
place as the upper ridge starts out across the East late this
weekend. Gradually, this ridge weakens and allows more scattered
shortwave energy to arrive across the area. For Tuesday and
into Wednesday, a cold front will approach the area and the
weaken as it moves thru. So, for the period from Sunday night
thru Monday night, a dry forecast is in place. Tuesday/Tuesday
night will feature some scattered shower/tstm activity and after
that, only widely scattered showers are expected for the
midweek and into Thu.
Well above normal temps for Sunday/Monday with highs in the
upper 70s/low 80s Sunday and then some 5 to 7 degrees warmer for
Monday. There will be more clouds and showers for Tue, but
highs in the 80s are still expected. Humidity levels will
increase into the new week with dew points rising to the upper
50s/low 60s for many areas.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...
Through today...VFR. East to southeast winds increasing to near
5-10 kts. High confidence.
Tonight...VFR. East to southeast winds dropping to 5 kts or
less. High confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR expected.
Saturday night... VFR except in a few scattered showers mostly
KRDG/KABE/KTTN when some MVFR is possible.
Sunday and Monday...VFR conditions anticipated.
Tuesday... Mostly VFR but scattered showers with lower
conditions possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas are diminishing and should be in the 2-4 foot range through
tonight with an east to southeast wind around 10 kts with gusts
up to 15 kts. Fair weather.
Outlook...
Saturday through Tuesday... Winds and seas will remain below
SCA criteria through the period. Fair weather expected.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values will be in the 25-30% range today. However, with
winds so low, around 10 MPH or less, the threat for the rapid
spread of wildfire remains low. The morning shift will take
another look and coordinate with partners to see if any
statements are needed.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A few records could be approached early this morning.
ABE/Allentown 30 in 2001/1967/1934
ACY/Atlantic City Airport 28 in 1967
55N/Atlantic City Marina 34 in 1883
GED/Georgetown 30 in 1964
MPO/Mount Pocono 18 in 1919
PHL/Philadelphia 35 in 1967/1919
RDG/Reading 27 in 1972
TTN/Trenton 33 in 1919
ILG/Wilmington 32 in 1919
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070-071.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ060>062-
101>106.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ014-023.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ001-007>010-
012-013-015>022-027.
DE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for DEZ001>003.
MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OHara/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...OHara/RCM
MARINE...OHara/RCM
FIRE WEATHER...RCM
CLIMATE...RCM
