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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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000 FXUS65 KPSR 230543 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1043 PM MST Mon Apr 22 2024 .UPDATE... 06Z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Hot weather continuing today, but a cooling trend through the end of the week will result in more pleasant weather as temperatures dip back near normal going into this weekend. Breezy to localized windy conditions will spread across the region over the next several days. No rain chances through this week, but non-zero chances develop this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Another 100 degree day in central Phoenix has already occurred, but today will be the hottest day in the foreseeable future. Current satellite depicts mostly clear skies, with only thin cirrus passing overhead and fair weather cumulus developing in some spots of the higher terrain of southcentral Arizona. Clear skies will persist through at least tomorrow, ahead of some higher clouds passing over the region tomorrow night. The larger scale pattern consisting of ridging over the Desert Southwest, causing the temperatures to soar near record levels the last couple of days. The positive height anomalies will begin to weaken over the next day or two, as longwave troughing across the eastern Pacific deepens well offshore of California. This trough will then move inland, leading to more breezy to localized windy conditions and cooling temperatures beginning as early as tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through at least Wednesday, before below normal temperatures settle into the region going into the weekend. This trough will bring enhance mid-level winds to the region as early as tomorrow, with the western districts the first to experience breezy to localized windy conditions. At this point, Wednesday looks to be the peak across the central to western portions of Imperial County, with borderline advisory level sundowner winds (40+ mph gusts) at least in the higher terrain of southwestern Imperial County, with lower gusts for the lower deserts. Enhanced winds will then spread eastward to southcentral Arizona on Thursday as the initial trough moves east of the region. Ensembles are in good agreement of a secondary trough diving southward upstream of the initial trough across western CONUS late week, with this trough influencing temperatures and potential rain chances over the weekend. By that point, spread amongst the ensembles are a bit more noticeable, as there seems to be discrepancies on how anomalous this trough will become. Regardless, temperatures will continue to remain below normal through at least Saturday, but if a stronger solution verifies, then the cooler temperatures could persist longer. Additionally, the deeper the system, the more available moisture would be available to potentially spark shower activity across southcentral Arizona. However, this scenario is a very low probability, as latest NBM PoP`s for Saturday remains below 20% (10%) for the higher terrain (lower deserts) at this point. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0530Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation concerns are expected through the forecast period under mostly clear skies. Winds will switch out of the E-SE by 07Z-08Z at all terminals and remain light through sunrise. Similar to today, there will be a slow transition to westerly flow Tuesday afternoon with a period of southerly crosswinds expected beginning around 16Z-17Z. Winds will become more elevated tomorrow with speeds up to 10-12 kts out of the south until winds ultimately shift out of the SW after 21Z-22Z. Gusts up to 18 kts will be possible through sunset tomorrow evening, mainly at KIWA and KPHX. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns will exist through Tuesday under mostly clear skies. Winds will generally remain southerly at KBLH and westerly at KIPL overnight. An approaching weather system will result in elevated S-SW flow late Tuesday morning at both terminals with gusts up to 20-25 kts developing in the afternoon at KBLH and around sunset at KIPL. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will persist early this week with winds steadily becoming more breezy ahead of an approaching weather system set to move through midweek. Afternoon humidity levels will continue to fall to around 10% following poor to fair overnight recovery of 20-40%. Cooler weather arriving during the latter half of the week will allow an improvement to RH with afternoon values only falling into a 15-25% range. As this weather disturbance moves through the region later in the week, very breezy conditions will also occasionally impact districts with afternoon gusts commonly reaching 20-30 mph. Given this combination of winds and humidity levels, a periodic elevated fire danger should be planned for during the second half of the week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Young AVIATION...Salerno FIRE WEATHER...Young/Kuhlman
