325
FXUS65 KREV 060932
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
232 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

While the region sees breezy to gusty westerly winds today with a
cold front passage, northern portions of the region closer to the
Oregon border may see some chances for showers late this
afternoon and into the evening with the remainder of the region
looks to stay dry. Dry weather persists for the rest of the week
for the region along with a slight warming trend and lighter winds
as higher pressure builds into the western U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The latest RAP analysis shows the CWA being underneath the rear
portion of a slightly negatively tilted upper air trough over the
Rocky Mountains allowing for a northwesterly flow aloft this
morning. Current satellite imagery along with surface observations
report back a broken to overcast ceiling of low to mid-level
clouds in the region along with mostly dry conditions. Going
through the rest of today, ensemble guidance shows the
northwesterly flow pretty much continuing over the CWA as it
remains under the western portion of the trough. There also looks
to be a shortwave trough passing through the flow over southern
OR during the late afternoon and evening. With this upper air
pattern, a cold front is anticipated to move through the region
from the northwest beginning in the late afternoon and pass
through the remainder of the region going through the evening.
Models are showing northern portions of Washoe and Lassen Counties
as well as western Modoc County with about a 20-50% chance of
light rain showers beginning in the late afternoon with the better
chances closer to the OR border. Going into the night:
precipitation may chance to light snow with temperatures cooling,
but a light dusting to maybe a few tenths of an inch of snowfall
at most are expected. The mixed precipitation chances move into
northeastern Pershing county around midnight before departing by
mid Tuesday morning. The latest QPF values in these areas that see
precipitation expect to be less than a tenth of an inch. While the
remainder of the CWA looks to be mostly dry, the cold front will
usher in some breezy to gusty westerly winds beginning in the
afternoon and going into the evening. Currently seeing wind gusts
ranging around 30-40 mph with higher elevations having slightly
increased gusts. People planning on recreating near Pyramid Lake
today may be dealing with choppy water conditions with winds
gusting close to 30 mph. While winds are expected to decrease
going into the night, the latest NAM run continues to show the
possibility for some freezing fog after midnight into Tuesday
morning in the Sierra and Martis Valleys.

From Tuesday onward, ensemble guidance predicts the northwesterly
upper air flow for CWA to continue on Tuesday. Models do show an
upper air low over the Northern Plains region starting to reorient
the general upper air pattern causing a northerly flow over the CWA
on Wednesday. On Thursday, models depict the flow over the CWA
turning northeasterly with an upper air low developing over the
AZ/UT border that resides there into Friday while a ridge moves over
the northwestern CONUS. By Friday evening, forecast guidance shows
the southwestern low diminishing allowing for the ridge over the
western CONUS to mostly dominate the region on Saturday going into
Sunday. With this upper air pattern in place, the region looks to
stay on the dry side for the rest of the week at this time. The
coolest daytime high temperatures are seen on Tuesday following the
previous day`s cold front passage, but temperatures start to trend
warmer through the remainder of the week with portions of the
region seeing the return of 70s by Thursday and the introduction
of daytime highs in the 80s potentially by the weekend with high
pressure in the western CONUS allowing for minimal cloud cover to
let diurnal heating increase the temperatures. -078

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are anticipated for most of the REV terminals going
through today. Exceptions include KTRK and KTVL which see some MVFR
ceilings through around 11Z-12Z. KTRK may also see some vicinity fog
this morning between 11Z-15Z. While dry conditions are anticipated
for today, models show winds increasing and gusting up to around 20-
25 kts generally from the west around 19Z-20Z with a cold front
moving through the region during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Winds are then anticipated to diminish around 03Z-06Z at
most REV terminals. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$