685
FXUS65 KFGZ 172324
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
424 PM MST Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer and drier weather will return to northern
Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually
increasing each afternoon. Unsettled weather is possible next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday...A shortwave ridge keeps temperatures
warm and mostly sunny skies in store for today, outside of some
fair weather cumulus in the higher terrain. Heights begin to fall
over the weekend as a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and
a closed-low approaches the California coast, leading to breezier
southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.

Monday through Thursday...As the low ejects off the Pacific, it phases
with the longwave trough to the north. The resulting increased
pressure gradient over Arizona will lead to increased winds across
much of the region. Model soundings show ample mixing potential
on Monday, allowing for faster winds aloft to mix down to the surface.
At this point, guidance continues to indicate the potential for wind
gusts in excess of 40-50 mph over and downwind of the terrain. The
areas most likely to see the strongest winds, will be the typical
locations downwind of the Mogollon Rim into the Little Colorado
River Valley.

With a dry airmass in place, minimum RH values Monday afternoon
will be in the upper single digits to the upper teens. This
combined with the strong winds will potentially lead to critical
fire weather conditions on Monday.

While moisture overall will be limited with this system, there may
be just enough to squeak out an isolated shower or two late Monday
into Tuesday over the higher terrain of far northern Arizona. Any
shower that does develop will be high-based, with the chance for
wetting rain virtually zero.

Zonal flow sets in behind the trough, with occasional passing
disturbances to the north. Thus, dry, cool, and breezy conditions
are expected to continue through the rest of the upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR conditions
continue. SW to W winds 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts during the
afternoon hours with light winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z...VFR is expected
through the period. SW winds 10-20 kts gusting 25-30 kts on
Sunday. SW winds increase Monday to 20-25 kts with gusts 30-40
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions continue
through the weekend. Southwest winds 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35
mph in the afternoon. Minimum RH values between 10-20%.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue.
Southwest winds 25-35 mph gusting to 40-50 mph on Monday. Winds
decrease to 10-20 mph for Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH values
will range between 5-15% each day. Near critical to critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much of northern Arizona on
Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff