Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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712 FXUS64 KLZK 180004 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 704 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Convection has fired up this afternoon, in particular along what appears to be a residual boundary stretching nearly E-W across north- central Arkansas. Convection is showing very little movement at this time. Storm cells are not persisting particularly long, but continued redevelopment over the same areas could produce locally heavy runoff. Aloft, a trof was quickly approaching the area from the west, and was kicking out a few minor impulses riding over the area. The trof should exit the area tomorrow and usher in a temporary reprieve from precipitation. Satellite imagery shows a closed low circulation over eastern OK, and this should move NE overnight into northern Arkansas. We have been fielding a lot of questions today about whether or not there will be any rain tonight for outdoor graduation ceremonies, and of course whether or not there is a risk for lightning. Generally speaking, quite a bit of the convection should start to wane by early this evening, with some lingering past sunset... although convection will likely linger and persist in the vicinity of the boundary and the approaching closed low aloft. Long story short, the greatest risk for having a graduation ceremony rained out will be across the northern third of the state, although I would not discount the potential for a rain-out across the central third of the state as well. And while a few showers will affect southern AR, those will likely diminish considerably by early this evening. After the trof exits to the east, shortwave ridging will take place. The heat and humidity of summer is not that far away, and Sunday highs will give a bit of a preview of what is to come...with dewpoints in the 60`s and highs in the upper 80`s to the lower 90`s in most areas. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 To begin the period, high pressure will control the weather pattern as an upper level trough will be located across the Rocky Mountains. By late Tuesday into Wednesday...surface high pressure will push off to the east as a low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes region. This low pressure system will bring a cold front across the state by Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible. Additional unsettled weather will be possible through at least Thursday as another shortwave trough moves over the CWA. It is still too early to mention specific details, but severe weather chances are possible...although on the lower end as of this forecast package. A big question regarding the severe weather chances with the system on Wednesday will be what time of day the storms move into the CWA. Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side through much of the period. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Higher humidity will likely make temperatures feel slightly warmer. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Sct SHRA/TSRA were ongoing over portions of Cntrl/Wrn/N-Cntrl AR associated with a passing upper level disturbance. This activity is expected to continue through 06z, afterwards precip will wind down. VFR conds are expected to prevail through the evening, with MVFR/IFR conds returning after 08z. Confidence in FG development is greatest over Nrn sites. Conds should improve after 14z/15z Sat with clouds decreasing in coverage through the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 62 83 63 88 / 20 20 0 0 Camden AR 63 86 65 90 / 30 20 0 0 Harrison AR 59 82 60 86 / 30 10 0 0 Hot Springs AR 62 85 65 89 / 40 10 0 0 Little Rock AR 65 85 67 90 / 50 20 0 0 Monticello AR 66 85 67 90 / 30 40 0 0 Mount Ida AR 60 85 63 89 / 40 10 0 0 Mountain Home AR 60 82 60 87 / 20 10 0 0 Newport AR 63 83 65 88 / 30 20 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 65 85 66 89 / 40 30 0 0 Russellville AR 62 85 64 90 / 40 10 0 0 Searcy AR 62 84 63 88 / 40 30 0 0 Stuttgart AR 66 83 67 88 / 50 40 0 0 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....73 AVIATION...70