Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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687 FXUS64 KSHV 172321 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 621 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Slow-moving upper trough axis continues to trudge its way across the Red River Valley this afternoon, maintaining expansive cloud cover but very little in the way of convection thus far. However, we may see a slight uptick in convective coverage this evening across our NW zones invof the base of the trough axis as it shifts along the I-30 corridor. Farther south along the TX coast, southern stream shortwave energy is embedded within SW flow aloft just north of a sfc frontal boundary just off the coast. This could also allow for some isolated convection to affect our southeasternmost zones this evening, but overall expect the region to remain largely free of convection tonight with low temperatures ranging through the 60s. As the upper trough gradually shifts east of the region through the day on Saturday, expect any lingering convection across our easternmost zones to gradually diminish throughout the day. High temperatures will recover rather comfortably as cloud cover thins throughout the day as well, allowing for mid and upper 80s to near 90 degrees in a few locations. Clearing skies tomorrow evening and overnight along with light winds will yield another night of lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 A return of warmer and more humid conditions will commence on Sunday as high pressure shifts east of the region and Gulf of Mexico moisture gradually increases from early to mid next week. Looking aloft, an upper ridge will also be building across the South Central CONUS, further serving to propel high temperatures into the lower and possibly mid 90s by Sunday and especially into next week. The ridge axis will eventually shift farther into the SE CONUS by mid to late week, opening the door for the next trough out west to encroach on our region. This will assist a frontal boundary in advancing SE toward our northern zones by late Wednesday and into Thursday, but uncertainty remains as to how far south this front will manage to make it before stalling. Regardless, this should allow for at least some low end rain chances to return to much of the region by mid to late week along with slightly milder temps to end the period. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 For the 18/00Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs will prevail through the period as light and variable winds contribute to some MVFR/IFR/FG exceptions by 18/10-16Z across most terminals. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 89 69 92 / 10 10 0 0 MLU 67 88 67 90 / 20 20 0 0 DEQ 62 86 64 89 / 30 10 0 0 TXK 66 88 67 92 / 20 10 0 0 ELD 64 87 65 90 / 20 20 0 0 TYR 67 89 69 91 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 66 88 68 91 / 10 10 0 0 LFK 66 89 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...16