Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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604 FXUS65 KPSR 021156 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 456 AM MST Thu May 2 2024 .UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures are anticipated through Saturday with lower desert highs reaching the low to mid 90s each afternoon. A dry weather system will pass through the Intermountain West this weekend resulting in widespread breezy to locally windy conditions and cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will continue with steadily rebounding temperatures through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hrs as large scale troughing remains the predominant feature across the western CONUS and dry westerly mid-lvl flow prevails over the forecast area. Warm and dry weather will continue across the Desert Southwest and winds will be light with the exception of a few rogue afternoon gusts. Daily highs are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s or around 3-5 degrees above normal through Saturday. Overnight lows across the region will continue to be mild in the upper 50s to mid 60s. As we head into this weekend, ensembles and deterministic forecast models depict a cutoff low entering the Pacific NW on Saturday and swinging across the Intermountain West on Sunday and Monday. There seems to now be better agreement between the ensemble members regarding the overall progression and strength of this feature with both the EPS and GEFS showing the system deepening and propagating through NV and UT on Sunday. The main impact from this system will be gusty winds beginning out west across the Imperial Valley Saturday evening. Latest NBM wind gusts have increased substantially across SE California after 00Z Sunday where strong sun-downer winds will be possible in Imperial County. NBM probabilities have increased to 70-80% for gusts greater than 40 mph, especially in the Southwest Corner of Imperial County through late Saturday night. The base of the upper-lvl trough will reach N AZ on Sunday afternoon. As this occurs, hghts aloft will decrease over the forecast area resulting in cooler temperatures region-wide with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s. Widespread breezy to windy conditions can be expected Sunday afternoon with gusts in the 30-35 mph range across the lower deserts of southcentral AZ and 40+ mph in the AZ high terrain. Longwave troughing will continue to be reinforced over the Intermountain West through Monday which will also feature near to slightly below normal temperatures and continued breeziness across the region. Heading into the middle of next week, temperatures look to slowly rebound to slightly above normal, however the overall longwave troughing pattern across the Western CONUS looks to persist. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1150Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major weather issues will exist through the TAF period under clear skies. Wind directions will follow a similar pattern to that of the last 24 hours, with west winds establishing by the early afternoon across the South-Central Arizona terminals and a southerly component favored at the Southeast California terminals through much of the period. Intermittent periods of variability are anticipated. Wind speeds will remain light (generally aob 10 kts sustained), though occasional gusts into the mid teens will be possible through the afternoon and early evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather with light and diurnal winds will continue through the remainder of this week. Afternoon highs will top out around 3-5 degrees above normal through Saturday. A dry weather system will pass north of the region on Sunday, resulting in widespread breezy to windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph in SE California on Saturday evening and up to 30-40 mph across southcentral AZ on Sunday. Afternoon min RHs will bottom out around 8-20% over the next few days, while overnight recoveries remain in the poor to fair category between 30-60%.. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Salerno AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Salerno