Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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104
FXUS65 KPUB 181044
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
444 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Dry, Cooler, and Less Windy Wednesday...

Currently across southern Colorado, skies are clear and winds out of
the northwest continue to decrease in intensity. Winds along the I-25
corridor, eastern plains, and across the San Luis Valley are
generally less than 15 knots, with winds across the far eastern
plains still gusting over 20 knots at times. Temperatures across the
plains are in the 30s, and are expected to drop into the upper 20s
to low 30s. GOES-16 shortwave IR imagery indicates a significant
decrease in wildfire activity during the evening, with only faint
hot spots apparent with the 117 Fire in southern El Paso County, and
the Badger Hole Fire in eastern Baca County.

A shortwave ridging pattern will lead to dry and relatively calm
weather across southern Colorado Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Winds will continue to decrease in intensity from west to east
through the morning hours, eventually becoming southeasterly this
afternoon/early evening. The southeast winds will primarily remain
less than 15 knots. Although relative humidity values will fall
below critical levels again today, the weaker winds will limit
critical fire weather potential. Behind yesterday`s storm system,
temperatures will be slightly cooler, with highs today only reaching
the upper 50s to low 60s across the plains and high valleys. Low
temperatures this evening will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s
across the plains and 20s across the high valleys. Line

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

Forecast district longer range meteorological issues continue to
be increasing precipitation potential(initially from later
Thursday into Saturday evening), winds, temperatures, thunderstorm
potential and elevated fire weather concerns for Thursday.

Parameters again coming together for the potential for near
critical to critical fire weather conditions over several forecast
district locations from late Thursday morning into early Thursday
evening, therefore have issued a Fire Weather Watch for these
locations during this time-frame.

Then, healthy closed upper low entering southern Nevada at 12Z
Thursday is projected to shift into east-central Utah by 12Z
Friday, before becoming centered over southeastern Colorado by 12Z
Saturday, with the upper low then moving into Arkansas by 12Z
Sunday will impact the forecast district with unsettled
conditions(in the form of increased precipitation favoring
northern sections with beneficial qpf possible, cooler
temperatures, higher terrain accumulating snow, gusty winds and
some thunderstorm activity) from later Thursday into Saturday
evening. This projected trajectory is somewhat further north than
earlier model solutions and if verifies will produce less
precipitation over southern sections than earlier projections.

More subdued meteorological conditions are then expected over the
CWA from Sunday into at least Monday morning as a transitory
upper ridge moves across the area with next round of somewhat
unsettled conditions then anticipated from later Monday into
Tuesday as next upper system impacts the area.

Finally, warmest temperatures over the forecast district during
the longer are anticipated Thursday and then again from Sunday
into Monday(where maximum temperatures climbing into the 70s over
eastern sections should be noted), while coolest conditions should
be realized Friday, Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 444 AM MDT Wed Apr 18 2018

All three TAF sites (KALS, KPUB, KCOS) are expected to experience
VFR conditions over the next 24 hours with mainly clear skies. 6-12
knot north/northwest winds this morning will become southeasterly by
early afternoon at KCOS and KPUB, and southerly at KALS. Wind speeds
will generally stay around or below 15 knots.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...


Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for COZ220-222-224-225-228>230-232-233.

&&

$$



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