Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 170216
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
816 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 813 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Red Flag warning for today allowed to expire. Red flag conditions
have subsided for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Strong winds and extreme fire danger return on Tuesday...

Currently...Gusty SW winds have appeared across the mountains and
portions of the I-25 corridor this afternoon, while weak La Junta
cyclone has kept winds across the plains and lower Arkansas Valley
lighter with a more ely component. Current Red Flag Warning captures
the situation fairly well, and will let it run until expiration
later this evening.

Tonight...Winds diminish but never completely decouple, which should
keep overnight mins rather mild at many locations. As 700 mb flow
increases to 50 kts toward morning, exposed ridges and higher peaks
will become fairly windy, and gusts of 50 to 60 mph look likely by
sunrise.

Tuesday...Very windy conditions will develop as upper wave and
associated bora cold front move through Colorado. Gusts to 60 mph
look possible across much of the area as 700 mb flow increases into
the 50-60 kt range, with W-SW winds late morning and early afternoon
switching to the W-NW as cold front moves through. Have hoisted a
high wind watch for the San Luis Valley, I-25 corridor and eastern
plains, and while mountains will be very windy as well, 75 mph gust
threshold looks just out of reach, so no highlight for higher
elevations. Humidity will drop well below 15 percent across the
region, and extremely critical fire weather conditions will develop
by early afternoon. Only change to current Red Flag warning was to
add Teller county to the warning, as RH will fall below 15 percent
for a few hrs here as well. Didn`t issue a Red Flag for the Central
Mountain zone as moisture increases and scattered showers develop
under passing upper trough, though winds here will be very strong.
With mid level thermal ridge pushing into the plains and cold
advection developing during the afternoon, high temps will be cooler
at many locations Tue, especially along and west of I-25.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Unsettled Weather for the later part of the Work Week...

Tuesday night-Wednesday night...Strong west to northwest flow aloft
across the region Tuesday afternoon behind the passing upper trough,
slowly moderates moderates and becomes more west to southwest
through the day Wednesday as shortwave upper ridging builds across
the state. Strong west to northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph, gusting
up to 60 mph across the area Tuesday evening will diminish Tuesday
evening and night, as gradient flow relaxes behind the passing
system, with current red flag warning and high wind watch remaining
in tact through the early evening. Northwest flow aloft will allow
for some orographic snow showers across the Central Mountains
Tuesday evening, with showers ending Tuesday night, as available
moisture shallows out. With dry air in place and relaxing winds,
will see cool overnight lows Tuesday night in 20s to low 30s across
the lower elevations, and mainly in the teens across the higher
terrain. Dry weather, lighter winds and near seasonal temperatures
can be expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night, as upper ridging
builds over the state.

Thursday-Saturday...Increasing south to southwest flow aloft progged
across the region through the day Thursday, as a strong Eastern
Pacific system digs into the Great Basin. Increasing flow aloft will
lead to breezy south to southwest winds developing across the area
Thursday afternoon, with increasing fire danger across the Plains.
However, models indicating increasing low moisture spreading across
the region, with min rh`s progged in 15-20 percent range and will
not issue any fire weather highlights at this time.

All eyes turn to the Great Basin system as it remains progged to
develop a closed low across the southern Great Basin Thursday night,
which then lifts out across northern New Mexico and into western
Texas and Oklahoma panhandle by 12Z Saturday, before moving into
eastern Oklahoma by Saturday evening. Conceptually, this pattern
would bring widespread precipitation to portions of South Central
and Southeast Colorado, though the devil will be in the details on
how this system evolves. Current models are showing some timing and
location differences, with the 12Z GFS faster and a tad further
north with the system as compared to 12Z ECMWF, leading to more
convection Thursday night and Friday across southeast Colorado, and
less precipitation associated with the deformation band and wrap
around precipitation shield associated with the main low, as the
slower and further south 12Z EC. At any rate, all models indicating
a fairly warm system with snow levels at or above 9K ft Thursday
night and Friday ahead of the system, and then lowering to around 6K
ft later Friday and Saturday on the backside of the system. Again,
too early to tell, but WPC 5 day qpf ending 00Z Sunday has between
1/4 and 1/2 inch of liquid precipitation across much of South
Central Colorado, and between 1/2 to over an inch of precipitation
across Southeast Colorado.

Sunday and Monday...Models indicating upper level ridging
redeveloping across the region into early next week, leading to
temperatures warming back to at and above seasonal levels. Models
are also indicating some residual moisture leading to possible
afternoon and evening showers, especially over and near the higher
terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 359 PM MDT Mon Apr 16 2018

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hrs at all taf sites. W-SW winds
will gust to 25-35 kts at KCOS and KALS into early evening, then
diminish after sunset. Winds at KPUB have been slower to increase,
and expect lighter and more erratic winds here into the evening.
Winds will rapidly increase again on Tue, with W-SW winds gusting
over 40 kts possible at all terminals after 17z, then W-NW winds
potentially gusting to 50 kts after 20z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ221-222-
224>237.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
COZ069>071-083>089-093>099.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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