Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211727
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1127 AM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another mild day across the region.  A cold front arrives
  overnight, and light snow will be possible over the Central
  Mountains tonight.

- Increasing winds Saturday ahead of next approaching weather system.

- Quick moving system expected to bring cooler temperatures and
  rain and snow chances to the area Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Currently...satellite imagery show mostly clear skies across
Colorado early this morning.  Temperatures have fallen into the 30s
across the Plains, while the San Luis Valley is currently in the
20s.  Winds are light at less than 10 mph.

Today and tonight...expect another pleasant day across southern
Colorado.  The slow moving upper system will continue to track east
away from the area, while a weak upper wave drops out of the
Northern Rockies into the Central Plains.  Dry conditions are
forecast across the area today, with mostly clear skies prevailing.
Temperatures will be mild, with 60s and lower 70s across the Plains,
and 50s to near 60 over the San Luis Valley.

The weak shortwave tracking southeast out of the Northern Rockies
and into the Central Plains will likely lead to a few snow showers
by late afternoon into the evening for the Central Mountains.  Minor
snow accumulations of around an inch may be possible, mainly for
areas north of Cottonwood Pass.  This snow will be brief, with dry
conditions by Friday morning.

A cold front will drop south across the Plains late tonight.  This
will bring a northeasterly wind shift by morning.  Overnight lows
will fall into the 30s to low 40s across the Plains, while the San
Luis Valley falls into the 20s.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Friday and Saturday..

Northwesterly flow aloft is expected to bring in slightly cooler
temperatures for Friday, though daytime highs will still be around 5
degrees above seasonal normals for most locations. Highs in the mid
60s are expected on our plains, with upper 50s for mountain valleys
and 30s and 40s for higher terrain locations. Apart from some very
light snow showers over the highest peaks of the central mountains
and the northern Sangres, mostly dry weather and clear skies are
expected for Friday. Models bring a deep upper trough onshore over
the Pacific Northwest by Saturday, increasing southwesterly flow
over our region for Saturday afternoon. This will mean light
orographically enhanced snow showers over the central mountains, the
La Garitas, and the San Juans, along with warm temperatures and
gusty downsloping winds for the rest of the forecast area. Though
strongest jet energy looks to remain south of our forecast area,
gusts to 45 mph are likely over our southern mountains, the southern
San Luis Valley, and across all of our plains south of highway 50.
Models continue to trend drier with each model run, which could end
up necessitating fire weather headlines for Saturday over portions
of our plains. Most likely areas to consider include Huerfano,
Otero, and western Las Animas counties, where gusty winds and driest
humidities seem to align for at least a couple of hours. Have
decided to hold off for now, as relative humidity values are still
very borderline. Fuels could also end up becoming a limiting factor,
given recent rain and snow across the area. Daytime highs on our
plains will likely soar well into the 70s on Saturday given
downsloping winds.

Sunday and Monday..

Models bring the trough into the Rockies through Sunday, then begin
to diverge on timing and amplitude as the feature traverses across
our forecast area. The general consensus still seems to spread snow
chances across the Continental Divide from Saturday night through
Sunday, with rain chances moving into the lower elevations as early
as Sunday afternoon for the Palmer Divide. Better chances for rain
and snow make their way into the plains later Sunday evening, with
everything changing to snow sometime late Sunday night or Monday
morning. GEFS members close the system up and move it out of our
area very quickly, bringing snow chances to an end very early Monday
morning with generally light accumulations for lower elevations. EPS
members are slower, keeping snow chances over our plains into the
later morning hours of Monday. Either way, snow totals aren`t
looking particularly impressive over lower elevations at this time,
though we could still see some travel impacts to the Monday morning
commute, especially over the Palmer Divide. Highest totals are
expected over the San Juans, The Sangres, the Wets, and highest
elevations of Teller County, to include Pikes Peak. Depending on
cold frontal timing, we could also see several hours of critical
fire weather conditions for our southern plains on Sunday afternoon
as well. Daytime highs will be heavily dependent on frontal timing
Sunday, and look to top out in the 40s on our plains for Monday.

Tuesday Onwards..

Though models close off a low and push it out out of our area
quickly, we look to remain in the backside of the broader trough
through mid week, keeping off and on chances for snow showers over
the Continental Divide through at least Wednesday. Temperatures look
to return to near normal by mid-week, with more chances for rain and
snow moving in from Thursday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Northerly surface pressure
gradient across the plains will likely suppress normal diurnal
wind cycle this afternoon at KCOS and KPUB, with light NW winds
at both terminals into the evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH/PETERSEN


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