Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 142154

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
354 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A medley of weather concerns will be affecting our region over
the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough breaks away from a closed
low currently spinning over the Pacific Northwest. The shortwave
already has a history of bringing snow over the eastern San Juan
Mountains, which will continue through the overnight hours and
into tomorrow. Snow will also begin to spread over the northern
portions of the Continental Divide Thursday afternoon. Expect snow
totals over the eastern San Juan Mountains to range from 4 to 8
inches with local amounts nearing one foot. The northern mountains
should see around 4 to 8 inches. There is the potential for
locally higher amounts to be observed in the mountains, since the
atmosphere over the mountains is slightly convective. Now shifting
focus over the plains, as a surface cyclone develops north of the
region, winds will ramp up over the eastern plains, with the
strongest gusts of near 40 mph expected over the Colorado and
Oklahoma and Colorado and Kansas border. The strong winds, dry
fuels, and low relative humidity values spark critical fire
conditions over all of the eastern plains, besides El Paso County.
Fire starts and spread will be rapid during the time period.

Low temperatures tonight across the plains will be above average,
whereas the the high valleys will remain near average. High
temperatures on Thursday should be a little bit warmer than what was
experienced on Wednesday. Expect high temperatures ranging the 70s
across the I-25 corridor and around 80 near the Colorado and Kansas
border. The high valleys will also be above average, with
temperatures around the mid 50s for the San Luis Valley and high 40s
to low 50s in the upper Arkansas Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

An upper level trof will still be moving over the area Thu eve,
bringing snow to the Continental Divide, with a couple or a few
more inches of accumulation thru midnight. Across the southeast
plains, there may be a few showers, with the best chance mainly
north of Highway 50. Both the NAM and the GFS show a bullseye of
pcpn over northern El Paso county, so will increase the POPs in
that area. After midnight, the upper low and trof will be moving
out of the area and pcpn chances will be decreasing or ending as
it moves off to the north and east. Behind this system, it will be
breezy to windy acrs most of the area overnight and into Fri,
with possibly some high wind concerns over and near the southern
Sangre de Cristo mtns thru Fri morning. There will be fire weather
concerns for Fri with the breezy winds, and min RH values acrs the
southeast plains falling below 15%. There is some uncertainty as
to how long some areas may see Red Flag conditions, but for now
will issue a Fire Weather Watch for Fremont county, I-25 corridor
and the southeast plains. Dry weather is expected Fri, with the
possible exception of a few showers in the central CO mtns.
Daytime highs will be above average acrs southeast and south
central CO.

Fri night and into Sat, an upper level trof will move into the
Great Basin, bringing an increase in pcpn chances to the
Continental Divide by late Sat. Sat also looks like a breezy day
with potential fire weather concerns.

Snow will continue along the Continental Divide thru Sun, although
the best chance will be Sat night and early Sun as the upper trof
moves acrs CO. Sun afternoon, a front moves southward thru the
southeast plains, possibly bringing some showers to the area. Sun
also looks like a breezy to windy day, with low humidities, and
thus the fire danger looks high again.

Mon another northerly surge comes thru the southeast plains, with
gusty winds, especially over the far southeast plains. Temps will
be a little cooler on Mon, and the weather should be dry, other
than some light showers in the central mtns. An upper level ridge
builds over the area Tue, with dry weather and around average high
temps. A new weather system moves into the western U.S. on Wed and
moisture and pcpn may again move into the Continental Divide.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 354 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Over KALS, some lower cumulus clouds will develop as the
convective temperature is attained tomorrow afternoon, but
conditions will remain dry and VFR. KCOS will experience weak
diurnal flow and conditions will persists as VFR, but there should
be some cumulus development in the early evening hours as well as
gusty winds. The winds at KPUB will be light during the overnight
hours, but will become gusty during the early afternoon hours,
VFR conditions expected.



Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ228>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for COZ222-226>237.



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