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000
FXUS65 KPUB 170948
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
348 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Critical Fire Weather conditions over parts of the region
   once again today.

 - Strong cold front to push across the region this evening
   bringing noticeably cooler air to the area.

 - Critical fire weather conditions expected within the San
   Luis Valley Thursday and Friday.

 - Cooler temperatures and more widespread precipitation
   chances expected to return this weekend, especially for
   Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Currently...

A relatively mild early morning as temps across teh region were
generally in the 40s across the plains and 20s in the large valleys.
Winds were light.

Aloft, a short wave mid level ridge was pushing across the region
early this morning, upstream of this feature, another broad but
relatively cold broad trough was pushing southeastward, and this
system will push cooler air into the region during this period.

Today...

Main concern today will be fire weather once again. Greatest concern
will be over the southern I-25 corridor region, with the critical
conditions extending across parts of Fremont county and the San Luis
Valley. Over the remainder of the region, near critical fire weather
conditions are expected.

Otherwise, another warm day is anticipated. Temps will get into the
80s most of the plains with U70s over the divides. San Luis Valley
should be around 70 with mtns in the 40s through 60s. Windiest
conditions will be in the mtns, as winds will be on the increase
over the higher terrain today in advance of the strong cold front
pushing towards the region from the NW. Winds over the higher
terrain this afternoon will be in the G30-40 mph range with 20 to 30
mph over the plains.

Some light showers will be possible later in the day over the central
mtns, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass.

Tonight...

Prefrontal wind shift will likely occur over the Palmer Divide by
late afternoon, with the actual front coming across the Palmer
around the 8-9 pm time frame. This boundary will then push south and
reach the NM border area during the predawn hours. Windiest
conditions with the fropa will likely occur over the far eastern
plains, with gusts to 40mph likely. A few showers will also be
possible, mainly across N El Paso county during the late evening
hours after the front goes by. Showers will continue over the
central mtns during the evening decreasing during the pre dawn
hours.

With lots of mixing occurring with the frontal passage, temps
tonight will remain relatively mild, but colder air will push in
towards sunrise, and expect temps to be around freezing across the
Palmer Divide region , with 30s to L40s the remainder of the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Thursday - Friday: For the later half of the week, relatively quiet
weather is expected, though there will be some concern for fire
weather conditions and light showers. Flow over south central and
southeastern Colorado will become predominantly westerly. Given no
major forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are expected across
the region. The exception to this will be isolated light showers
along the mountains, and possibly I25 corridor, given minor
orographic forcing that will be ongoing. Given the overall dry
conditions, more critical fire weather conditions are expected to
materialize, though primarily across the San Luis Valley. A cold
front from Wednesday will keep temperatures cooler and moisture
higher across the eastern plains, which will help to keep humidity
values above critical fire weather thresholds. Given the higher
elevation of the San Luis Valley however, it will not be influenced
by this cold front, allowing for well above average temperatures,
dry air, and windy conditions to persist each day. The combination
of these factors will allow for an additional couple of days of
critical fire weather conditions. As for temperatures, portions of
the area will be around and below average, while others are above
average. Areas across the eastern plains will remain around and
below average thanks to the aforementioned cold front from
Wednesday night. Then areas generally west of the I25 corridor
will remain above average given the lack of influence from the
cold front.

Saturday - Tuesday: For the rest of the long term period, active and
quiet stretches of weather are expected. Saturday and Sunday
will bring the active period of weather, as a messy troughing
pattern pushes over the region. This feature will bring
increased forcing to the area, along with a reinforcing cold
front to the plains. These factors will allow for more
widespread precipitation chances for much of the region,
especially on Saturday. With that said though, finer details are
still murky at this time, but ensemble model guidance are in
relatively good agreement about the overall troughing pattern
and cold frontal surge. Then for Monday and Tuesday, the quieter
period of weather arrives. Behind the troughing pattern, a
messy ridge is anticipated to develop. Given the lack of major
forcing with this feature, dry conditions are expected to
prevail. With that said though, weak waves within the flow could
help to blossom isolated showers during this timeframe. Looking
at temperatures, Saturday and Sunday will be cooler, with
temperatures around and below average values, especially for
Saturday. Then Monday and Tuesday start a warming trend back to
above average temperatures for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites during the next 24 hour at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Breezy west to southwest surface
winds will occur today, with a strong cool front cross the KCOS and
KPUB taf sites later this evening. Winds will be gusty from a
northerly component later tonight at KCOS an d KPUB. Dry conditions
area anticipated.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ224.
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
COZ222-227>230-233.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH