Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 821 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Updated to allow Red Flag Warning to expire this evening and also
to refresh grid/zones.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Red Flag conditions are being seen acrs most of the Warning area and
these conditions will continue into the evening, thus the Red Flag
Warning will remain in effect.  Red Flag conditions have also
developed over srn El Paso and eastern Fremont counties, but it
shouldn`t be too long before the potential for showers moves into
the areas and humidities increase.

An upper level low over extreme northern NM, is expected to continue
tracking eastward into north central OK by late tonight.  Snow has
continued over the mountains along the Continental Divide today, but
scattered showers have also spread eastward acrs the high valleys
and into the eastern mtns, along with some isold tstms.  The best
chances for precipitation will be this evening for this area,
with isolated to scattered precipitation most other areas.
However, the central mtns, the Pikes Peak area and El Paso county
should see high chances for precipitation develop this evening.
For the late night hours, the best precipitation chances are
expected to be over the Pikes Peak area, El Paso county, and areas
acrs the eastern plains, mainly north of Highway 50. Northern
portions of El Paso county will likely see the potential for 1 to
4 or 5 inches of snow accumulation, although it is a little
difficult to forecast given the convective nature of the precip
the first half of the night. Teller county and Pikes Peak will
probably also see a few to several inches of snow. As the upper
low works its way east, the winds will become northwest to north
and strong, especially over the eastern plains. It looks like
gusts of 45 to 55 mph are not out of the question. The concern is
that the strong winds will cause a travel hazard with snow,
blowing snow and low visibilities, especially over northern El
Paso county.

On Monday, the weather system will be out of the area, but gusty
northerly winds are expected to continue over eastern areas thru the
day behind this system.  Although winds will be gusty, the
humidities will be higher on Monday and therefore there are no fire
weather concerns. The forecast models suggest that there will be
enough lingering moisture and instability for snow showers over the
mtns. Below average temps can be expected on Mon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Warmer and drier weather returns to most of southeast Colorado this
week, but fire weather concerns will return to the southeast plains
Thursday through Saturday.

Northwest flow aloft is expected Monday night through Tuesday night.
A weak disturbance moves through the flow Monday with snow showers
possible in the central mountains. The disturbance moves through the
area overnight with precipitation chances quickly decreasing.
Highs Tuesday will generally be in the 50s on the plains.

An upper level ridge builds across the Rockies Wednesday and remains
in place Thursday. Temperatures on Wednesday warm into the mid 50s
to mid 60s across the lower elevations and mainly in the 40s and 50s
across the higher terrain. Highs on Thursday will be quite mild
ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s on the plains. Weather may
approach red flag warning criteria with very dry airmass in place.
Surface winds increase late in the day and that may preclude the
need for a fire weather highlight. Increasing westerly flow aloft will
bring snow chances back to the Continental Divide Thursday, but
dry elsewhere.

Friday through Sunday...Westerly flow aloft Friday brings a
continued chance of snow to the Continental Divide. Meanwhile, the
southeast plains continue in a dry, windy and warm pattern.
Currently looks like Friday will bring critical fire weather
conditions to southeast Colorado once again. Models show
increasing southwesterly flow aloft across the state Saturday into
Sunday. GFS shows closed upper low developing off the CA coast by
Sunday. Should be a bit cooler Saturday, but fire weather
conditions will remain a concern. Some uncertainty in the forecast
for next weekend with models currently showing a developing
trough over the western U.S.



.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Gusty northerly winds, generally in the 20 to 35 mph range are
expected to continue over the KPUB and KCOS taf sites into early
Monday afternoon. In addition, generally light snow in combination
with gusty winds should continue over the KCOS taf site until
after midnight with conditions improving by sunrise.

KALS should experience basically VFR conditions during the next 24



Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for COZ068-084.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Monday for COZ058-060.


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