115
FXUS65 KPUB 201114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the plains
  (storms expected to last well into the early AM hours over
  far eastern plains).

- A few Strong to Severe Storms expected over the plains Thursday.

- Gradual warming trend through the period (No significant fire
  weather concerns expected though through the period).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Today into Tonight...

The main concern during the short term will be another round of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected over the southern mtns
by early afternoon, moving onto the plains later this afternoon and
over the far eastern plains this evening. Storms today are not
expected to be all that strong, although small hail and gusty winds
will be possible, especially along the southern I-25 corridor. The
one issue is the storms may last well into the early AM hours over
the far eastern plains, especially north of US50.

As for temp, it will be cool once again this afternoon, with max
temps only int the U50s to L70s across the plains. The coolest
weather over the plains will be over N El Paso county, with the
warmest temperatures over the southern I-25 corridor, The San Luis Valley
should see highs in the U60s.

A couple of inches of snow will be possible at the higher elevations
of the central mountains and Pikes Peak.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Overall trend in the weather during this period will be gradually
warming temperatures. 70s on THursday will be replaced by temps
approaching 90 by mid week next week. We will also it becoming
drier. Fortunately, surface winds are not expected to be strong and
widespread critical RH values are not anticipated, so fire weather
concerns will be low.

The main concern during this long term forecast period will be on
Thursday as favorable shear will be in place and sufficient
instability will be over the plains, and expect a good chance to see
some rotating storms over the plains during this day as CAMS are
showing some modest helicity swaths moving over the plains during
the late afternoon and early evening time periods. Likewise I
anticipate the possibility of large hail and damaging winds, with a
low end tornado threat possible. SPC still has the fcst area under a
marginal risk, but it does have a 2% percent tornado threat over all
of the plains on the 06 UTC SWODY2.

For Fri and Sat, we will see some thunderstorms during the afternoon
and evening hours, but expect the activity to be weaker and more
isolated. Drier weather is expected the rest of the period, but we
may see a ramp up in activity over the interior on Tuesday
afternoon. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 514 AM MDT Wed May 20 2026

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. Breezy west-
southwest winds will pick up today, gusting close to 30 knots
through early this evening. Mid-level clouds will persist, with
winds weakening to 10 knots or less later tonight into Thursday
morning.

KCOS and KPUB: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist
throughout the period. East to southeast winds will help keep low
clouds socked up against the terrain, with occasional rain and
drizzle, especially at KCOS. Rain showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move across the area this afternoon, bringing periods of
rain, thunder, and gusty outflow winds. Due to limited coverage,
left as PROB30 groups for now. KCOS has an overall higher chance of
seeing precipitation, with two PROB30 groups, while KPUB has a
slightly lower chance and more narrow time window. Once the showers
and storms move off for the night, low clouds and potential patchy
fog will last through the end of this forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/KT
LONG TERM...HODANISH/KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO