Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220540
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

...Lingering Evening Snow Showers then Areas of Fog...

Limited moisture, lift and instability continue to wrap around the
back side of the large upper low spinning over Kansas this afternoon.
High res models continue to show a few more bouts of showers,
falling as snow above 6,000 feet, into the evening hours before
everything heads east.  Temps are pretty mild for snow so not a
whole lot of accumulation anywhere, maybe up to an inch locally
under the heavier showers.  Once the showers wind down and the winds
drop off, we could saturate in a lot of areas considering the amount
of precipitation there has been.  So, areas of fog, locally dense,
can be expected overnight in a lot of areas, especially east of the
mountains where showers are still ongoing and dewpoints are running
about 10 degrees higher than other areas.  There just hasn`t been a
whole lot of drying across the plains today.

Sunday, after the fog dissipates, there should be plenty of
sunshine.  Temperatures should warm steadily to near average levels
for this time of year.  But, as is often the case this time of year,
the afternoon heating will help to kick off a few showers or even
thunderstorms over the mountains in the afternoon.  Nothing too
widespread or intense expected but a few around.  The primary
threats from any storm that might develop, lightning and locally
heavy snowfall rates.  Spring has sprung.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Sunday night through Monday...Increasing southerly flow at the
surface will help keep temps somewhat mild for Sunday night, and
boost temps Mon into the mid 60s to mid 70s for most areas. This
flow is in response to an approaching upper disturbance, forming
over the Pacific NW and moving into the Rocky Mt region. Isolated
showers along the Continental Divide Sun night are expected to
spread across the San Luis Valley, eastern mts, Palmer Divide and
eastern plains Mon aftn and eve as this disturbance continues to
track east. Snow amounts are forecast to fall in the 1 to 3 inch
range for elevations above 10k feet through Mon eve, while the
lower elevations may see some beneficial showers as well as
increasing humidity.

Tuesday...The upper shortwave tracks across the Rockies late Mon
night through Tue, pushing a cold front down into eastern CO right
around midnight Mon night. This will actually cool temps by about
5 to 10 degrees for the high valleys, and closer to 20 degrees
for the plains on Tue. Showers will continue across all of the
forecast area Tue morning, then the focus area for pcpn will sag
southward through the aftn and into the eve as the upper shortwave
continue to the east-southeast. Look for highs in the 50s to
around 60F for the high valleys, and 40s to mid 50s across the
plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...Big differences between the GFS and
EC models starting midweek, and lasting into the next weekend. As
the Tue shortwave exits the area, the GFS shows a ridge building
over the desert sw with moisture sneaking under up across NM. The
EC continues to paint unsettled northwest flow aloft over the
region, with a stronger shortwave affecting the region on Thu but
otherwise somewhat dry. Of course, extended procedure uses the
Superblend which averages the extremes and the end result is
almost a daily chance or pcpn over the mts. Feel the GFS is too
wet and that the EC has a better angle, but for the sake of
consistency will not stray far at this time. Expect highs in the
60s for most areas both Wed and Thu, then gradual warming for Fri
and Sat with max temps reaching the lower to mid 70s across the
plains by Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Main concern remains possible development of fog overnight,
especially at COS and PUB with light upslope flow persisting
through the morning. With ample precipitation over the past day
and proximity to the higher terrain, model soundings continue to
indicate IFR/LIFR fog to develop at COS between 08-12Z. Expecting
fog to be short lived, as northerly winds aloft start to mix down
across the area with VFR conditions expected to develop between
14-15Z and persist through the rest of the day.

At PUB and ALS, soundings not as conducive for fog developing and
will likely lowering MVFR and IFR stratus through the early
morning hours, with VFR conditions developing between 15-16z and
persisting through the rest of the day.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW


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